People mistake probability for certainty too readily. If you show me someone who is 400 lbs at 29 and someone who is 150 lbs at the same age, I would take an e

People mistake probability for certainty too readily. If you show me someone who is 400 lbs at 29 and someone who is 150 lbs at the same age, I would take an even-odds bet on the 150 lb person dying later. I think you would, too. I could be wrong, and there's a lot of uncertainty there, but that doesn't mean that there's absolutely no link between health and lifespan.