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The push can come from tariffs due to ~$50B trade deficit with Taiwan and ~$400B deficit with China.

bryanlarsen 2y ago
As long as you recognize that a Chinese tariff would be a massively inflationary and regressive tax on American consumers. A Chinese tariff is perhaps the right long term move, but in the short term it will cause a lot of pain to Americans who are struggling with a cost of living crisis as it is.
- mensetmanusman 2y ago
  If tariffs simply fix the price difference between the cost of materials-dumping that is happening in certain industries where China has over-invested to help properly balance the global economy, it will not be massively inflationary; it’s just a defensive move against attacks on western manufacturing centers.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    IOW, a price increase, aka inflation.
    - mensetmanusman 2y ago
      If a widget costs $10, and a competitor comes in who is subsidized by the largest population in the world and then sells a competing widget for $1, this will seem like a great deal in the short term for the population. (Until they stop manufacturing widgets because they can’t sell below cost.) Adding $9 in tariffs to the $1 may seem like inflation, but it’s something slightly different.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        As I said originally, that might be good in the long term, but in the short term that's 900% inflation.
        mensetmanusman 2y ago
        For a consumer, there are some key differences between anti-dumping duties and inflation. ADD: This only affects the price of specific imported products on which the duty is imposed. It doesn’t impact the overall economy or all goods, just the targeted products. Inflation affects the prices of almost all goods and services in the economy. It is a widespread increase in the cost of living rather than a targeted rise in prices of specific items. ADD: Consumers will see price increases only in the goods that are subject to the duty. This could make foreign goods more expensive than their domestic alternatives, potentially reducing consumer choice or driving them toward domestic products. Inflation impacts the price of all goods and services, not just specific items, leading to a broad reduction in real income if wages don’t keep up. ADD: This is typically a temporary measure until the market corrects itself or until dumping practices are stopped. Inflation can be long-term or short-term, depending on the economic conditions driving it.
        bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Chinese goods are a large percentage of the goods that American consumers consume. A price increase in them is a broad price increase. And approximately all of the goods produced in the US use a large percentage of Chinese parts. American services use Chinese goods. They'll all see cost increases. The shift in demand towards different domestic products will cause price increases -- demand for these will outstrip supply, causing price increases.

As long as you recognize that a Chinese tariff would be a massively inflationary and regressive tax on American consumers. A Chinese tariff is perhaps the right long term move, but in the short term it will cause a lot of pain to Americans who are struggling with a cost of living crisis as it is.

mensetmanusman 2y ago
If tariffs simply fix the price difference between the cost of materials-dumping that is happening in certain industries where China has over-invested to help properly balance the global economy, it will not be massively inflationary; it’s just a defensive move against attacks on western manufacturing centers.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  IOW, a price increase, aka inflation.
  - mensetmanusman 2y ago
    If a widget costs $10, and a competitor comes in who is subsidized by the largest population in the world and then sells a competing widget for $1, this will seem like a great deal in the short term for the population. (Until they stop manufacturing widgets because they can’t sell below cost.) Adding $9 in tariffs to the $1 may seem like inflation, but it’s something slightly different.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      As I said originally, that might be good in the long term, but in the short term that's 900% inflation.
      - mensetmanusman 2y ago
        For a consumer, there are some key differences between anti-dumping duties and inflation. ADD: This only affects the price of specific imported products on which the duty is imposed. It doesn’t impact the overall economy or all goods, just the targeted products. Inflation affects the prices of almost all goods and services in the economy. It is a widespread increase in the cost of living rather than a targeted rise in prices of specific items. ADD: Consumers will see price increases only in the goods that are subject to the duty. This could make foreign goods more expensive than their domestic alternatives, potentially reducing consumer choice or driving them toward domestic products. Inflation impacts the price of all goods and services, not just specific items, leading to a broad reduction in real income if wages don’t keep up. ADD: This is typically a temporary measure until the market corrects itself or until dumping practices are stopped. Inflation can be long-term or short-term, depending on the economic conditions driving it.
        bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Chinese goods are a large percentage of the goods that American consumers consume. A price increase in them is a broad price increase. And approximately all of the goods produced in the US use a large percentage of Chinese parts. American services use Chinese goods. They'll all see cost increases. The shift in demand towards different domestic products will cause price increases -- demand for these will outstrip supply, causing price increases.