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The population growth rate is one of the major factors of the economic growth rate. For an economy to repeatedly grow 5-10% a year, which is economic miracle t

The population growth rate is one of the major factors of the economic growth rate. For an economy to repeatedly grow 5-10% a year, which is economic miracle territory, you almost have to be cresting the demographic transition when a large generation starts to have smaller families. That happened generations ago in Greece. To have growth like that in the face of population decline would require a resource windfall like discovering huge deposits of oil, or the discovery of some epochal technologies to boost productivity. I agree that economic incentives can depress the birthrate, but a low birthrate depresses economic growth as well. It's a vicious cycle compounded by politics wherein the diminishing surplus generated by a shrinking workforce is used to pay for pensions and other elder benefits that don't increase productivity. No one has figured out how to break out of this cycle once it becomes established.

nostrademons 2y ago
> No one has figured out how to break out of this cycle once it becomes established. I don't think that's true. Usually the way you break out of the cycle is to have a major war, pandemic, famine, or genocide, and then the survivors naturally start having more babies once it's clear that they are the survivors and all of their competition for resources has been eliminated. The Dark Ages were followed by significant population growth in the High Middle Ages, Black Death was followed by population growth of the Rennaissance, population stagnation in Europe became population growth in the United States as the Native American genocide was completed, and WW2 was followed by the Baby Boom.
- daymanstep 2y ago
  It is misleading to say that WWII was followed by the Baby Boom as people tend to infer from that that WWII caused the Baby Boom which does not really fit with the historical facts. WWI was not followed by a Baby Boom - in fact US birth rates declined from 1909 until the middle of the Great Depression in 1935. Then birth rates started rising from before 1939 which is before WW2 even started. How History Works made a good YouTube video on this, I'd recommend it: https://youtu.be/Ts1ZFHA4cCw https://youtu.be/Ts1ZFHA4cCw

nostrademons 2y ago

> No one has figured out how to break out of this cycle once it becomes established. I don't think that's true. Usually the way you break out of the cycle is to have a major war, pandemic, famine, or genocide, and then the survivors naturally start having more babies once it's clear that they are the survivors and all of their competition for resources has been eliminated. The Dark Ages were followed by significant population growth in the High Middle Ages, Black Death was followed by population growth of the Rennaissance, population stagnation in Europe became population growth in the United States as the Native American genocide was completed, and WW2 was followed by the Baby Boom.

daymanstep 2y ago
It is misleading to say that WWII was followed by the Baby Boom as people tend to infer from that that WWII caused the Baby Boom which does not really fit with the historical facts. WWI was not followed by a Baby Boom - in fact US birth rates declined from 1909 until the middle of the Great Depression in 1935. Then birth rates started rising from before 1939 which is before WW2 even started. How History Works made a good YouTube video on this, I'd recommend it: https://youtu.be/Ts1ZFHA4cCw https://youtu.be/Ts1ZFHA4cCw