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The thing that saved the computer industry after the dot bomb was: 1) Broadband. A lot of the 90s business models that didn't work out at the time did work out

The thing that saved the computer industry after the dot bomb was: 1) Broadband. A lot of the 90s business models that didn't work out at the time did work out a few years later as people got faster internet and 2) A little bit later there were smart phones. The problem I see now is we need some other big thing to come along that would make a lot of business models that didn't work before suddenly start working. We haven't had any big platform shift since smart phones and the industry is now entering into a "maturation state." Kinda like aerospace in the 80s/90s after SST didn't work out and everything became about getting another 3-5% efficiency at mach 0.81 every decade. I added more thoughts here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41495082

ghaff 2y ago
I'm very glad I didn't go to work for Boeing in the early eighties when I had a job offer without even an interview out of school. I had to actually ask to get flown out to Seattle to meet with some folks. I'm not sure where I'd put my bets these days. Blockchain ended up pretty much a bust even outside of the crypto-scammers. Quantum feels like it's receding and I know folks that have exited from day to day involvement. Not sure what's past Kubernetes/containers/etc. and many folks seem to get annoyed if I press too hard on the question. Of course, there are always new innovations but unclear to me what's game-changing which may imply compensation that's very ordinary engineering/professional levels as was the case outside outside of SW in some locations for the past couple of decades. Which people with visions of $500K comp pages for ICs may find disappointing.
- cranberryturkey 2y ago
  AI is the obvious one
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Maybe. We'll see how it plays out and whether it's a positive or a negative from an employment perspective and what types/levels of employment it affects. I actually think AI is probably a big deal but the details are very unclear to me.
ghaff 2y ago
I basically agree. There were a lot of things: Web 2.0, smartphones (as you say and mobile more broadly), broadband had been coming in but really blossomed and a lot of things associated with it... So there was definitely a dot-bomb with a lot of knock-on effects in the tech sector but people who were able to wiggle through a few years to the other side, like I was albeit with not great comp, were mostly OK and generally weren't as affected by 2008 as a lot people outside tech were.

ghaff 2y ago

I'm very glad I didn't go to work for Boeing in the early eighties when I had a job offer without even an interview out of school. I had to actually ask to get flown out to Seattle to meet with some folks. I'm not sure where I'd put my bets these days. Blockchain ended up pretty much a bust even outside of the crypto-scammers. Quantum feels like it's receding and I know folks that have exited from day to day involvement. Not sure what's past Kubernetes/containers/etc. and many folks seem to get annoyed if I press too hard on the question. Of course, there are always new innovations but unclear to me what's game-changing which may imply compensation that's very ordinary engineering/professional levels as was the case outside outside of SW in some locations for the past couple of decades. Which people with visions of $500K comp pages for ICs may find disappointing.

cranberryturkey 2y ago
AI is the obvious one
- ghaff 2y ago
  Maybe. We'll see how it plays out and whether it's a positive or a negative from an employment perspective and what types/levels of employment it affects. I actually think AI is probably a big deal but the details are very unclear to me.

ghaff 2y ago

I basically agree. There were a lot of things: Web 2.0, smartphones (as you say and mobile more broadly), broadband had been coming in but really blossomed and a lot of things associated with it... So there was definitely a dot-bomb with a lot of knock-on effects in the tech sector but people who were able to wiggle through a few years to the other side, like I was albeit with not great comp, were mostly OK and generally weren't as affected by 2008 as a lot people outside tech were.