4 ms·

I'm not sure the comparison you offer is meaningful because both the UK and Japan have much lower rates of all kinds of crime than the USA, not just firearms-re

I'm not sure the comparison you offer is meaningful because both the UK and Japan have much lower rates of all kinds of crime than the USA, not just firearms-related murders. Even if the UK and Japan had very high gun rates of gun ownership, it is unlikely they would have rates of gun crime as high as those of the USA. Another reason it is not meaningful is that it makes no difference to a member of the public whether they meet their untimely demise at the barrel of a gun or by some other means. What you want to look at, in countries that have implemented firearms restrictions in recent history, is whether there is an effect on the murder rate or suicide rate. In many cases, it is hard to say there is a clear positive effect. For example, if we consider the UK's 1988 Firearms Act, which banned semi-automatic rifles, we might start with this data for homicide rates from 1970 to 2023: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/homicideinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2023 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeand... The homicide rate has been under 2 per 100k since 1970 (it is a much lower rate than in the USA) and actually went up for a few years following the act. In Japan, I doubt we have statistics that reach back far enough to allow us to do a comparison.

worstspotgain 2y ago
> Even if the UK and Japan had very high gun rates of gun ownership, it is unlikely they would have rates of gun crime as high as those of the USA. It is in fact quite possible that they would, particularly for the UK. The gun-enabled wild-west culture may well be the single most important root of the crime problem in the US. You're not helping your case here. > For example, if we consider the UK's 1988 Firearms Act, which banned semi-automatic rifles You can't extrapolate microscopic data from a country with an 86-fold lower death rate. The way very few gun enthusiasts react to additional UK restrictions teaches us absolutely nothing about what would happen if the US adopted the UK's laws and cleaned up the gun mess. My expectation would be a 50-fold reduction in the death rate within 20 years.
- solidsnack9000 2y ago
  It sounds like you sincerely believe that gun ownership causes other kinds of crime. For example, robbery, shoplifting, simple assault and so on. This isn't easy to support with data either within the USA or across countries. For example, consider Canada, the UK, Finland, and Switzerland. These countries have great differences between them in the gun ownership rate and the types of guns that are allowed to be owned, but they all have rates of violent crime that are much lower than the USA. Within the USA, two of our safest states -- New Hampshire and Massachusetts -- are right next to each other. While New Hampshire has some of the most permissive gun laws in the country, Massachusetts has among the most restrictive. It is not reasonable at all to conclude that Japan or the UK would, if gun ownership were more permissible, have the same high rates of murder, armed robbery or related crimes as the USA. In the case of the UK, interestingly enough, we actually have quite a lot to go on, here. The UK had much more permissive gun policies earlier in the 1900s but still had lower rates of murder, &c, than the USA. My expectation would be a 50-fold reduction in the death rate within 20 years. But how do you support that? You criticised my data, calling it microscopic -- although millions of people live in the UK, and you earlier offered data about the UK to support your position -- but what would suggest a 50-fold decrease like that following any gun policy change whatsoever, over any length of time whatsoever?
  - hollerith 2y ago
    >The UK had much more permissive gun policies earlier in the 1900s but still had lower rates of murder, &c, than the USA. Well, sure, but that is not particularly informative on predicting how much US violence would go down if the US started banning guns: the informative bit of info is how much UK violence went down after the UK started banning guns.
    - solidsnack9000 2y ago
      It didn't go down, though. What makes you think it went down?
      - hollerith 2y ago
        I didn't say it went down.

worstspotgain 2y ago

> Even if the UK and Japan had very high gun rates of gun ownership, it is unlikely they would have rates of gun crime as high as those of the USA. It is in fact quite possible that they would, particularly for the UK. The gun-enabled wild-west culture may well be the single most important root of the crime problem in the US. You're not helping your case here. > For example, if we consider the UK's 1988 Firearms Act, which banned semi-automatic rifles You can't extrapolate microscopic data from a country with an 86-fold lower death rate. The way very few gun enthusiasts react to additional UK restrictions teaches us absolutely nothing about what would happen if the US adopted the UK's laws and cleaned up the gun mess. My expectation would be a 50-fold reduction in the death rate within 20 years.

solidsnack9000 2y ago
It sounds like you sincerely believe that gun ownership causes other kinds of crime. For example, robbery, shoplifting, simple assault and so on. This isn't easy to support with data either within the USA or across countries. For example, consider Canada, the UK, Finland, and Switzerland. These countries have great differences between them in the gun ownership rate and the types of guns that are allowed to be owned, but they all have rates of violent crime that are much lower than the USA. Within the USA, two of our safest states -- New Hampshire and Massachusetts -- are right next to each other. While New Hampshire has some of the most permissive gun laws in the country, Massachusetts has among the most restrictive. It is not reasonable at all to conclude that Japan or the UK would, if gun ownership were more permissible, have the same high rates of murder, armed robbery or related crimes as the USA. In the case of the UK, interestingly enough, we actually have quite a lot to go on, here. The UK had much more permissive gun policies earlier in the 1900s but still had lower rates of murder, &c, than the USA. My expectation would be a 50-fold reduction in the death rate within 20 years. But how do you support that? You criticised my data, calling it microscopic -- although millions of people live in the UK, and you earlier offered data about the UK to support your position -- but what would suggest a 50-fold decrease like that following any gun policy change whatsoever, over any length of time whatsoever?
- hollerith 2y ago
  >The UK had much more permissive gun policies earlier in the 1900s but still had lower rates of murder, &c, than the USA. Well, sure, but that is not particularly informative on predicting how much US violence would go down if the US started banning guns: the informative bit of info is how much UK violence went down after the UK started banning guns.
  - solidsnack9000 2y ago
    It didn't go down, though. What makes you think it went down?
    - hollerith 2y ago
      I didn't say it went down.