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Honestly Poland already has a sever labor shortage and the natives have one of the worst birth rates of Europe[1]. This is actually one of the major sources of

Honestly Poland already has a sever labor shortage and the natives have one of the worst birth rates of Europe[1]. This is actually one of the major sources of domestic inflation compared to the European block. If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy, much more the growth. Also the newer generation is very very different from the older ones, even Millenials->GenZ, but this I have good hopes. Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. On the contrary, with the recent huge increases in minimum wage and still strong dependency on manufacturing, the moment to check is actually now. Of course there is a lot of inertia in DFI but in my surroundings I hear of big corporations leaving for cheaper places. Volvo for example just left and 3M will have a local restructuring. There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry. All in all, Poland is a great place to live, and you kind of can see progress as time goes by. Something that cannot be said of many other developed places. [1] https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-postwar-low-in-poland-as-population-falls-almost-1-million-in-a-decade/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-po...

alephnerd 2y ago
> Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. You're being downvoted but you aren't wrong. A lot can go wrong in a decade. In 2024, Poland (and Hungary) are at the same comparative level of development they were in 2014 (using distance from the WB High Income GDP per Capita threshold as a proxy), yet their 2014 peer Slovakia was able to significantly increase it's GDP per Capita to near Czechia levels (tbf Slovakia was also able to leverage Czechia's development). Historically poorer Romania has also started catching up to both Poland and Hungary recently due to significant FDI inflows due to political instability in both countries in the late 2010s. Both Poland and Hungary are at a precipice - if they can conduct lasting reforms within their administrative system over the next decade, then they are absolutely on track to becoming a developed country. Medium case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Uruguay and Panama - stuck with laggard growth. Worst case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Argentina (but stuff would have to go seriously wrong). > If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy And Belarusians and Russians - Poland and much of the CEE became nations of immigrants by 2016 as labor and capital inflows from Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia began due to the start of the Ukraine War in 2014, and the subsequent sanctions regimes. > There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry I think T1 salaries are around $30-60k now across the CEE, which is largely comparable to similar talent in every country excluding the US and Canada. The hard work for Poland is to now leverage it's existing talent (both domestically and in the diaspora) to build strong global players. Historically poorer Romania is following this path with companies like UIPath and BitDefender, and Czechia did something similar with Avast and JetBrains. Aside from Allegro and CD Projekt, I can't think of a major multinational Polish tech company. In fact, almost every major Polish company is either entirely owned by a foreign investor or state owned. I think Eurocash is the only notable exception.

alephnerd 2y ago

> Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. You're being downvoted but you aren't wrong. A lot can go wrong in a decade. In 2024, Poland (and Hungary) are at the same comparative level of development they were in 2014 (using distance from the WB High Income GDP per Capita threshold as a proxy), yet their 2014 peer Slovakia was able to significantly increase it's GDP per Capita to near Czechia levels (tbf Slovakia was also able to leverage Czechia's development). Historically poorer Romania has also started catching up to both Poland and Hungary recently due to significant FDI inflows due to political instability in both countries in the late 2010s. Both Poland and Hungary are at a precipice - if they can conduct lasting reforms within their administrative system over the next decade, then they are absolutely on track to becoming a developed country. Medium case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Uruguay and Panama - stuck with laggard growth. Worst case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Argentina (but stuff would have to go seriously wrong). > If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy And Belarusians and Russians - Poland and much of the CEE became nations of immigrants by 2016 as labor and capital inflows from Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia began due to the start of the Ukraine War in 2014, and the subsequent sanctions regimes. > There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry I think T1 salaries are around $30-60k now across the CEE, which is largely comparable to similar talent in every country excluding the US and Canada. The hard work for Poland is to now leverage it's existing talent (both domestically and in the diaspora) to build strong global players. Historically poorer Romania is following this path with companies like UIPath and BitDefender, and Czechia did something similar with Avast and JetBrains. Aside from Allegro and CD Projekt, I can't think of a major multinational Polish tech company. In fact, almost every major Polish company is either entirely owned by a foreign investor or state owned. I think Eurocash is the only notable exception.