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As a Pole, my biggest anxiety is that Poland will give in and become like the rest of the West. If they let in migrants (even so many Ukrainians is a problem I

As a Pole, my biggest anxiety is that Poland will give in and become like the rest of the West. If they let in migrants (even so many Ukrainians is a problem IMO), if they give in to "diversity is a strength", if they give into equality of outcome instead of equality of opportunity.... The country will be lost.

alephnerd 2y ago
And it's sentiments like these that give me a pause about investing in Poland. There's no guarantee that voters like this guy won't vote in a PiS or a PiS-style populist due to nativist sentiment as well as anger at non-redistributive development (Warsaw/Lodz/Gdansk/Wclow vs everyone else), and as a result the Polish govt ends up having to give us additional tax breaks and holidays to minimize our concerns (great for us, not as great for Poles).
- some_random 2y ago
  I hate to say it, but after this summer's elections in France and Germany I really don't think this is a risk unique to any EU country. In fact I would put greater risk on other countries because they're starting out wealthier, people are a lot more open to immigration and centrist/liberal parties when they're getting 10% more money year over year and their children have a brighter and brighter future.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > I really don't think this is a risk unique to any EU country True! But I'm fine dealing with populist headaches in a $4T and $2.7T economy instead of a $690B economy.
    - some_random 2y ago
      Depends on who you are, I'm going to care about which one I'm investing in which is the context I was looking at this from
- unethical_ban 2y ago
  Ignoring legitimate concerns about mass unfiltered migration will only propel the far right into power.
- talldatethrow 2y ago
  It's not worth taking your investment money if it means destroying one of that last non destroyed European countries. I moved to the US in 89. I've watched the US basically be destroyed by policies that basically are even worse over in Europe. Up until recently, Poland was still a shinning beacon of hope. It's getting worse but hopefully the eastern European rationality kicks in and they wake up before it's too late. The lefts ideas have made enough places pretty terrible. They don't need to do it to ONE MORE place.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > The lefts ideas have made enough places pretty terrible. They don't need to do it to ONE MORE place. It's not a left or a right issue - when I want to start a foreign office, I often need to bring in talent from my other offices. If it's a pain to get short term work visas for my employees (India, China) or if there are fears of safety and xenophobia (Israel, India), my employees don't feel like helping start those on-site offices. If my employees don't want to visit those countries, we may as well choose one of the several other CEE states like Czechia or Romania. Already Romania has almost caught up to Poland in GDP per Capita and social indicators despite being much poorer barely a decade ago. > It's not worth taking your investment money if it means destroying one of that last non destroyed European countries. Be careful what you wish for. Hungarian voters thought the same way 10 years ago, and that lead to capital outflows to Poland and Romania. Almost every large private sector Polish employer by revenue is owned by a foreign MNC. 40% of the Polish economy is owned by us "foreign investors". We're fine moving that money away, and that did start towards the end of the Duda administration due to political instability, with a lot of capital outflows to Romania which rolled out the red carpet for us.
    - talldatethrow 2y ago
      I'd rather be poorer than deal with everything the west is throwing on everyone. A poorer Poland is still a better Poland than a wealthier not so Poland anymore. And if you want to start a Polish office, hire Polish people. Don't tell me you need Indians and Chinese people. If you can't do it with Polish people because we're too dumb or lazy or uneducated for your business, oh well. Don't just import people. Most poles don't want them. However bad you think right wing Polish people are, it's probably worse when you're not in the room. So please consider than in your next round of investment.
ptsneves 2y ago
Honestly Poland already has a sever labor shortage and the natives have one of the worst birth rates of Europe[1]. This is actually one of the major sources of domestic inflation compared to the European block. If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy, much more the growth. Also the newer generation is very very different from the older ones, even Millenials->GenZ, but this I have good hopes. Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. On the contrary, with the recent huge increases in minimum wage and still strong dependency on manufacturing, the moment to check is actually now. Of course there is a lot of inertia in DFI but in my surroundings I hear of big corporations leaving for cheaper places. Volvo for example just left and 3M will have a local restructuring. There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry. All in all, Poland is a great place to live, and you kind of can see progress as time goes by. Something that cannot be said of many other developed places. [1] https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-postwar-low-in-poland-as-population-falls-almost-1-million-in-a-decade/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-po...
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. You're being downvoted but you aren't wrong. A lot can go wrong in a decade. In 2024, Poland (and Hungary) are at the same comparative level of development they were in 2014 (using distance from the WB High Income GDP per Capita threshold as a proxy), yet their 2014 peer Slovakia was able to significantly increase it's GDP per Capita to near Czechia levels (tbf Slovakia was also able to leverage Czechia's development). Historically poorer Romania has also started catching up to both Poland and Hungary recently due to significant FDI inflows due to political instability in both countries in the late 2010s. Both Poland and Hungary are at a precipice - if they can conduct lasting reforms within their administrative system over the next decade, then they are absolutely on track to becoming a developed country. Medium case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Uruguay and Panama - stuck with laggard growth. Worst case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Argentina (but stuff would have to go seriously wrong). > If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy And Belarusians and Russians - Poland and much of the CEE became nations of immigrants by 2016 as labor and capital inflows from Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia began due to the start of the Ukraine War in 2014, and the subsequent sanctions regimes. > There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry I think T1 salaries are around $30-60k now across the CEE, which is largely comparable to similar talent in every country excluding the US and Canada. The hard work for Poland is to now leverage it's existing talent (both domestically and in the diaspora) to build strong global players. Historically poorer Romania is following this path with companies like UIPath and BitDefender, and Czechia did something similar with Avast and JetBrains. Aside from Allegro and CD Projekt, I can't think of a major multinational Polish tech company. In fact, almost every major Polish company is either entirely owned by a foreign investor or state owned. I think Eurocash is the only notable exception.

alephnerd 2y ago

And it's sentiments like these that give me a pause about investing in Poland. There's no guarantee that voters like this guy won't vote in a PiS or a PiS-style populist due to nativist sentiment as well as anger at non-redistributive development (Warsaw/Lodz/Gdansk/Wclow vs everyone else), and as a result the Polish govt ends up having to give us additional tax breaks and holidays to minimize our concerns (great for us, not as great for Poles).

some_random 2y ago
I hate to say it, but after this summer's elections in France and Germany I really don't think this is a risk unique to any EU country. In fact I would put greater risk on other countries because they're starting out wealthier, people are a lot more open to immigration and centrist/liberal parties when they're getting 10% more money year over year and their children have a brighter and brighter future.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > I really don't think this is a risk unique to any EU country True! But I'm fine dealing with populist headaches in a $4T and $2.7T economy instead of a $690B economy.
  - some_random 2y ago
    Depends on who you are, I'm going to care about which one I'm investing in which is the context I was looking at this from
unethical_ban 2y ago
Ignoring legitimate concerns about mass unfiltered migration will only propel the far right into power.
talldatethrow 2y ago
It's not worth taking your investment money if it means destroying one of that last non destroyed European countries. I moved to the US in 89. I've watched the US basically be destroyed by policies that basically are even worse over in Europe. Up until recently, Poland was still a shinning beacon of hope. It's getting worse but hopefully the eastern European rationality kicks in and they wake up before it's too late. The lefts ideas have made enough places pretty terrible. They don't need to do it to ONE MORE place.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  > The lefts ideas have made enough places pretty terrible. They don't need to do it to ONE MORE place. It's not a left or a right issue - when I want to start a foreign office, I often need to bring in talent from my other offices. If it's a pain to get short term work visas for my employees (India, China) or if there are fears of safety and xenophobia (Israel, India), my employees don't feel like helping start those on-site offices. If my employees don't want to visit those countries, we may as well choose one of the several other CEE states like Czechia or Romania. Already Romania has almost caught up to Poland in GDP per Capita and social indicators despite being much poorer barely a decade ago. > It's not worth taking your investment money if it means destroying one of that last non destroyed European countries. Be careful what you wish for. Hungarian voters thought the same way 10 years ago, and that lead to capital outflows to Poland and Romania. Almost every large private sector Polish employer by revenue is owned by a foreign MNC. 40% of the Polish economy is owned by us "foreign investors". We're fine moving that money away, and that did start towards the end of the Duda administration due to political instability, with a lot of capital outflows to Romania which rolled out the red carpet for us.
  - talldatethrow 2y ago
    I'd rather be poorer than deal with everything the west is throwing on everyone. A poorer Poland is still a better Poland than a wealthier not so Poland anymore. And if you want to start a Polish office, hire Polish people. Don't tell me you need Indians and Chinese people. If you can't do it with Polish people because we're too dumb or lazy or uneducated for your business, oh well. Don't just import people. Most poles don't want them. However bad you think right wing Polish people are, it's probably worse when you're not in the room. So please consider than in your next round of investment.

ptsneves 2y ago

Honestly Poland already has a sever labor shortage and the natives have one of the worst birth rates of Europe[1]. This is actually one of the major sources of domestic inflation compared to the European block. If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy, much more the growth. Also the newer generation is very very different from the older ones, even Millenials->GenZ, but this I have good hopes. Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. On the contrary, with the recent huge increases in minimum wage and still strong dependency on manufacturing, the moment to check is actually now. Of course there is a lot of inertia in DFI but in my surroundings I hear of big corporations leaving for cheaper places. Volvo for example just left and 3M will have a local restructuring. There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry. All in all, Poland is a great place to live, and you kind of can see progress as time goes by. Something that cannot be said of many other developed places. [1] https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-postwar-low-in-poland-as-population-falls-almost-1-million-in-a-decade/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/02/01/births-drop-to-new-po...

alephnerd 2y ago
> Even so i disagree with the article author that claims Poland has not left the middle income trap. You're being downvoted but you aren't wrong. A lot can go wrong in a decade. In 2024, Poland (and Hungary) are at the same comparative level of development they were in 2014 (using distance from the WB High Income GDP per Capita threshold as a proxy), yet their 2014 peer Slovakia was able to significantly increase it's GDP per Capita to near Czechia levels (tbf Slovakia was also able to leverage Czechia's development). Historically poorer Romania has also started catching up to both Poland and Hungary recently due to significant FDI inflows due to political instability in both countries in the late 2010s. Both Poland and Hungary are at a precipice - if they can conduct lasting reforms within their administrative system over the next decade, then they are absolutely on track to becoming a developed country. Medium case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Uruguay and Panama - stuck with laggard growth. Worst case, they could end up like their 2014 peer Argentina (but stuff would have to go seriously wrong). > If not for the inflow of Ukrainians labor shortages would cripple the economy And Belarusians and Russians - Poland and much of the CEE became nations of immigrants by 2016 as labor and capital inflows from Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia began due to the start of the Ukraine War in 2014, and the subsequent sanctions regimes. > There has been an inflection point on IT wages a well. Maybe it is a blip, but I think there is reason to worry I think T1 salaries are around $30-60k now across the CEE, which is largely comparable to similar talent in every country excluding the US and Canada. The hard work for Poland is to now leverage it's existing talent (both domestically and in the diaspora) to build strong global players. Historically poorer Romania is following this path with companies like UIPath and BitDefender, and Czechia did something similar with Avast and JetBrains. Aside from Allegro and CD Projekt, I can't think of a major multinational Polish tech company. In fact, almost every major Polish company is either entirely owned by a foreign investor or state owned. I think Eurocash is the only notable exception.