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If Russia attacks Poland, there will be a nuclear war. So I wouldn't worry about that too much, as it will be risky then everywhere.
by auggierose 2y ago
If Russia attacks Poland, there will be a nuclear war. So I wouldn't worry about that too much, as it will be risky then everywhere.
- golergka 2y ago> If Russia attacks Poland, there will be a nuclear war. How do you figure? Even if NATO actually invokes article 5, nuclear doctrines of involved countries do not suppose immediate nuclear escalation from a conventional war. Of course, risk of nuclear war goes up if Russia invades, but it doesn't automatically go all the way to 100%.
- somenameforme 2y agoThis has been wargamed repeatedly and the conflicts literally always end in nuclear annihilation. I think it's easy to understand why as well. Whatever side is losing will naturally convince themselves that the cost of the risk of nuclear escalation is less than the cost of accepting outright defeat. Yet vice versa, the winning forces will not accept being bullied by nukes, because what's to stop it from happening again in the future, and so also won't back down. Next thing you know everybody's dead, and everybody loses, but at least nobody ever had to admit defeat.
- golergka 2y ago> Whatever side is losing will naturally convince themselves that the cost of the risk of nuclear escalation is less than the cost of accepting outright defeat Then just don't put them on death ground. If they have a way out, with loss of prestige and resources, but still staying in power, they will take it. India and Pakistan have had border clashes when both countries already had nukes. It was close and very dangerous, but it is still a counter-example to claim that every war between nuclear nations is just automatically bound to become a nuclear war.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoIn particular, destroy everything Russia puts over the border, and maybe even everything it's staging in an offensive posture near the border, but don't invade Russia.
- aguaviva 2y ago[redacted]
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoI deny you the right to put words in my mouth. I also note that the discussion was about Russia vs. Poland (a NATO member), which is rather a different situation than Russia vs. Ukraine. Your reply is therefore a non sequitur as well as a rather shady rhetorical move. All that said, I do in fact support giving Ukraine what it needs in order to defend itself. I think that is in fact a worthy and noble goal.
- aguaviva 2y agoI misread you (having been triggered by things other people have been saying about the topic). My mistake, but it was not intended rhetorically.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoYeah, I was just catching up on one of the branches of the conversation that have been triggering you. I, um, understand why you might be triggered... And, you know, I've never over-reacted or misinterpreted someone. Never. Um... at least not today... um, well, uh... I also was a bit hair-trigger in my reply to you. In particular, you gave pphysch more grace (the first time) than I gave you.
- aguaviva 2y agoNo worries + thanks for clarifying. I do need to remind myself to slow down and check both GP and parent before responding (which is what I didn't do here), so it's all good, really.
- some_random 2y agoI really don't think that follows, especially if Russia pursued the same strategy it has for decades now of generating a low level insurgency that it heavily supports but does not overtly participate in.
- abraxas 2y agoI doubt that will work in the specific case of Poland as Russian minority is virtually non-existent here. There is of course a sizable Ukrainian diaspora now but I doubt they will go turncoat in large numbers.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Log_out_ 2y agoRussias trooo participated fully as insurgents in the donbas conflict. There are even videos of the participating troops admitting to it.So a insurgency is not needed, just the illusion of one.
- keiferski 2y agoEntirely different situation compared to Ukraine, Georgia, etc. and there is basically no group of people that would make up that insurgency.
- piva00 2y agoSalami slicing will not work in Poland, the country is both part of EU and NATO, not only part of the EU but its eastern border, Germany is right next there as a neighbour. Any aggression towards Poland is a very different level and degree than against Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, etc. Do you really believe the EU and NATO would sit on their hands in case some low level pro-Russia insurgency popped up in Byalystok or Lublin? Not only that, do you believe the Polish government would be doing nothing and accepting pro-Russian separatism cropping up anywhere in its territory? I don't think there's anything the Poles hate more than Russian imperialism, not even sure if they hate Hitler more than that to be honest...
- onemoresoop 2y agoDoes Poland have nuclear weapons? A response from NATO will likely not involve nuclear strikes unless Russia starts first.
- Log_out_ 2y agoSoon. Everyone will want a piece of yellow cake now that everyone has shown its colors. Which makes the Russian conquest a race to gobble up as much territory as possible before every neighborhood goes full selfdefense forever.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago> there will be a nuclear war sounds like a pretty good reason to me to worry about it.
- auggierose 2y agoWhat does it matter where you invest in that case?
- brnt 2y ago> there will be a nuclear war. Stop repeating FUD. Really, _everything_ about Russian foreign policy has always been to appear larger than they are, to push soft power as hard as they can, and to be very careful to pick only on evidently weaker neighbours with hard power. There will never nuclear war. It will always be used because it's a threat that works for some people. That's Russia psy-ops for you: even in the open Westerners have trouble accepting it because it confronts them with their own irrationality.
- auggierose 2y agoLol. There are many rockets holding nuclear payloads distributed all over the world. If you think it is impossible that they are ever put to use, you haven't lived long enough.
- brnt 2y agoOr I have...