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Extrapolation is dangerous. People tend to overestimate what's possible in a year while underestimating the possibilities next decade. So far we're mostly seein
by pipo234 2y ago
Extrapolation is dangerous. People tend to overestimate what's possible in a year while underestimating the possibilities next decade. So far we're mostly seeing huge investments hoping for a short term goals while we're not sure whether long term goals (like: Logic and Algorithms aka Planning and Optimization) would even benefit from more compute. Maybe, yes.
Shedding some hindsight on earlier extrapolations — The billions pored into the metaverse or self-driving didn't yield the results we expected in the period we expected.
- throwaway4aday 2y agoWhile I agree that we don't want to extrapolate too much I disagree that this type of exploration may not benefit from more compute. We won't know until we try and since we have what seems to be a very generalizable architecture it makes sense to take the brute force approach of creating models of that data by scaling the amount of data and the amount of compute we dedicate to it. If it turns out not to work then we've learned something. As it turns out, Logic and Algorithms has seen some early success using Transformers (Searchformer) https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14083 https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14083