The "X" here is that "setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September", not that "we'll definitely see more cyclones

The "X" here is that "setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September", not that "we'll definitely see more cyclones in September". You're grading a weather forecaster pass/fail on a prediction that didn't make. Which, I guess is your prerogative... If a forecaster says that there's a 90% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, that doesn't mean they were wrong and doesn't mean that the forecast was useless.