4 ms·

Why I Wrote Data Science for Crime Analysis with Python (2023)

123 points by apwheele 2y ago

chirau 2y ago
I am looking at the table of contents and it looks like the topics are just the same ones as any other Python for data analysis book. Is there anything specific in the book that is specific to "Crime Analysis" or it is just another data analysis task?
- apwheele 2y ago
  The examples are crime analysis focused, you can see the final chapter end-project example here, https://github.com/apwheele/CrimeBook https://github.com/apwheele/CrimeBook. But yes the fundamentals are the same for most any "data analyst job". If you look at the preface section "What this book is not", I discuss that point: > This book is aimed to get you started writing code and applying it to real tasks crime analysts need to conduct. I use realistic examples that a crime analyst may be interested in conducting, such as sending automated emails, making year-to-date tables, and creating line charts. But I do not discuss in detail things like the Poisson distribution for analyzing crime rates or why hotspot analyses is important.
qwertox 2y ago
"Plug-in could not be loaded". Reminded me of the good old Java Applets / ActiveX days. `<object data="/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_EarlyRelease.pdf" width="100%" height="500"></object>` is causing that problem. Here's the link: https://crimede-coder.com/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_EarlyRelease.pdf https://crimede-coder.com/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_Earl...
- lelandfe 2y ago
  PDF viewer has excellent support on desktop, but is ~absent from mobile https://caniuse.com/pdf-viewer https://caniuse.com/pdf-viewer
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - n_plus_1_acc 2y ago
    It works for me with FF on Android. Maybe the author has changed something.
flnac 2y ago
[flagged]
0x1243127 2y ago
[flagged]
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ideashower 2y ago
> One critique of predictive analytics is that machine learning is racist. This is misleading – predictive policing is a method to identify areas or people that can benefit the greatest from specific interventions. This is just complete misrepresentation. Characterizing machine learning itself as inherently racist is an oversimplification. Predictive tools often use biased data from the past, which can make their predictions unfair. The bias in predictive policing stems from historical over-policing in Black neighborhoods compared to white ones, for one example. Using these biased predictions leads police to focus on the same areas and people repeatedly, creating a self-fulfilling cycle. This happens despite evidence showing that people across different communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable rates. The system essentially reinforces existing patterns of unequal law enforcement rather than reflecting true crime distribution. I see you've written lots of papers on predicting crime. Have you ever gone back and looked at your predictions vs actual reports? I wish for once people would try to turn this inward on the system rather than support armed agents of the law to further reinforce harmful systems. You could design a system to see how a particular type of outcome from a law enforcement officer's intervention results in the downstream effects of that intervention. Does that person ever re-offend? Does that person instead never touch the legal system again? If they don't re-offend, what is the LEO doing that we could encourage more officers to practice? There is research to support the idea that less punitive intervention means less recycling through the CJ system. You could look at prosecutors on a single team, and look at diversionary disposition outcomes, with downstream criminal justice data from CJIS systems, to see what outcomes individual prosecutors are doing and how they're actually meaningfully impacting people's lifelihoods, likelihood to reoffend and community safety. Instead, we just continue to reinforce cycles of harm. It's shameful.
- kspacewalk2 2y ago
  >This happens despite evidence showing that people across different communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable rates. This stands out as a giant red [citation needed] to me. Do you have any good references for me to read up on, that back this claim with actual crime stats?
- tptacek 2y ago
  A common complaint from Black households in Black neighborhoods is that they're under-policed.
n8cpdx 2y ago
Another book using shrink wrapped software: https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/modern-policing-using-arcgis-pro https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/modern-policing... And a software-agnostic book focused on the theory: https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/understanding-crime-analyzing-the-geography-of-crime https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/understanding-c... Disclosure: I work at Esri but not on desktop software or the press teams, and I bought both books on Amazon with my own money.

123 points by apwheele 2y ago

I am looking at the table of contents and it looks like the topics are just the same ones as any other Python for data analysis book. Is there anything specific in the book that is specific to "Crime Analysis" or it is just another data analysis task?

apwheele 2y ago
The examples are crime analysis focused, you can see the final chapter end-project example here, https://github.com/apwheele/CrimeBook https://github.com/apwheele/CrimeBook. But yes the fundamentals are the same for most any "data analyst job". If you look at the preface section "What this book is not", I discuss that point: > This book is aimed to get you started writing code and applying it to real tasks crime analysts need to conduct. I use realistic examples that a crime analyst may be interested in conducting, such as sending automated emails, making year-to-date tables, and creating line charts. But I do not discuss in detail things like the Poisson distribution for analyzing crime rates or why hotspot analyses is important.

qwertox 2y ago

"Plug-in could not be loaded". Reminded me of the good old Java Applets / ActiveX days. `<object data="/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_EarlyRelease.pdf" width="100%" height="500"></object>` is causing that problem. Here's the link: https://crimede-coder.com/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_EarlyRelease.pdf https://crimede-coder.com/images/DS_PythonCrimeAnalysis_Earl...

lelandfe 2y ago
PDF viewer has excellent support on desktop, but is ~absent from mobile https://caniuse.com/pdf-viewer https://caniuse.com/pdf-viewer
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- n_plus_1_acc 2y ago
  It works for me with FF on Android. Maybe the author has changed something.

flnac 2y ago

[flagged]

0x1243127 2y ago

[flagged]

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

ideashower 2y ago

> One critique of predictive analytics is that machine learning is racist. This is misleading – predictive policing is a method to identify areas or people that can benefit the greatest from specific interventions. This is just complete misrepresentation. Characterizing machine learning itself as inherently racist is an oversimplification. Predictive tools often use biased data from the past, which can make their predictions unfair. The bias in predictive policing stems from historical over-policing in Black neighborhoods compared to white ones, for one example. Using these biased predictions leads police to focus on the same areas and people repeatedly, creating a self-fulfilling cycle. This happens despite evidence showing that people across different communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable rates. The system essentially reinforces existing patterns of unequal law enforcement rather than reflecting true crime distribution. I see you've written lots of papers on predicting crime. Have you ever gone back and looked at your predictions vs actual reports? I wish for once people would try to turn this inward on the system rather than support armed agents of the law to further reinforce harmful systems. You could design a system to see how a particular type of outcome from a law enforcement officer's intervention results in the downstream effects of that intervention. Does that person ever re-offend? Does that person instead never touch the legal system again? If they don't re-offend, what is the LEO doing that we could encourage more officers to practice? There is research to support the idea that less punitive intervention means less recycling through the CJ system. You could look at prosecutors on a single team, and look at diversionary disposition outcomes, with downstream criminal justice data from CJIS systems, to see what outcomes individual prosecutors are doing and how they're actually meaningfully impacting people's lifelihoods, likelihood to reoffend and community safety. Instead, we just continue to reinforce cycles of harm. It's shameful.

kspacewalk2 2y ago
>This happens despite evidence showing that people across different communities commit similar minor crimes at comparable rates. This stands out as a giant red [citation needed] to me. Do you have any good references for me to read up on, that back this claim with actual crime stats?
tptacek 2y ago
A common complaint from Black households in Black neighborhoods is that they're under-policed.

n8cpdx 2y ago

Another book using shrink wrapped software: https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/modern-policing-using-arcgis-pro https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/modern-policing... And a software-agnostic book focused on the theory: https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/understanding-crime-analyzing-the-geography-of-crime https://www.esri.com/en-us/esri-press/browse/understanding-c... Disclosure: I work at Esri but not on desktop software or the press teams, and I bought both books on Amazon with my own money.