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"It might be worth considering that until very recently, Russia's military was definitely supremely capable and on-par with NATO." I think Russia was not on-pa

"It might be worth considering that until very recently, Russia's military was definitely supremely capable and on-par with NATO." I think Russia was not on-par with NATO after it collapse, at least not in conventional warfare. They missed the electronic revolution in warfare (See US-IRAQ Gulf War I). But they are now back on par, possibly better. Their jamming, air defense and rockets are top-notch, possible better than NATOs. They can disrupt our GPS System, we can't disrupt theirs since it is much younger, speak better. As a comparison: Germany had 3000 tanks during the cold war. Now they have 300, 200 operational. Russia looses so many tanks every month, and actually builds 100-200 new ones every month. Germany had ammunition for two days of warfare. After they gave some to Ukraine, they have ammunition for one day left. Russia has been underestimated. They are back and their future looks pretty good, even with a dubious leader. They won their war: Defeat of the West? Emmanuel Todd and the Russo-Ukrainian War https://www.thearticle.com/defeat-of-the-west-emmanuel-todd-and-the-russo-ukrainian-war https://www.thearticle.com/defeat-of-the-west-emmanuel-todd-... They have energy, they are not overpopulated, they have fewer problems with immigration. In fact, they're even looking for immigrants: https://movingtorussia.ru/ru https://movingtorussia.ru/ru In the US I can smell the recession and banks will go belly up very soon: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-big-u-s-banks-have-the-most-commercial-real-estate-exposure/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-big-u-s-banks-have-th... In Germany too. Without Russian Energy their manufacturing heavy country will deindustrialize. At the same time, Russia is actively trying to replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, together with BRICS+. If successful, this will have a tremendous impact on the US. I am not a Putin troll, and I hope that I am wrong. But the future has the nasty habit of taking unexpected turns.

aguaviva 2y ago
They have not "won the war". Not by any stretch. That's just a pundit's plainly ideology-driven projection. The fact that this author chose to call their book The Defeat of the West, and that its main thesis is that this defeat is due to the “vaporisation of Protestantism" should give one serious pause. Perhaps not the best source to turn to for a serious, impartial military analysis.
- Beijinger 2y ago
  "Perhaps not the best source to turn to for a serious, impartial military analysis." Fair point. But it is from Emmanuel Todd. Who the f. is Emmanuel Todd? "Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere)."
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    It doesn't matter who he is, or what he said when he was 25. His perspective this time around is plainly warped, and his analysis is just as plainly flawed, given the current reality of what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. You can tell that all by yourself, without having to take some supposed visionary's word for it. That's what happens when people get lucky early in their careers. Sadly, it tends to go to their head. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
    - User23 2y ago
      What’s currently going on in Ukraine is they are slowly losing a war of attrition that eventually their allies will lose interest in funding. We don’t have to like that outcome to see that it’s inevitable and has been from the very start. One entirely possible outcome I haven’t seen discussed much is Poland turning on the Ukrainian rump state once Russia finishes annexing the ethnic Russian east.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        The current situation can only be regarded as a stalemate. In the service to which Russia is devoting 10 percent of its GDP, while Western countries are spending 1 percent. We don’t have to like that outcome to see that it’s inevitable and has been from the very start. It's not at all inevitable. Russia has lost many of its optional wars of aggression and foreign intervention, in the past. Putin will also be dead or starting to lose his marbles in a few years, and Russia's overall prospects for stability (even if there were no war at all) do not look particularly good after that.
mopsi 2y ago
> As a comparison: Germany had 3000 tanks during the cold war. Now they have 300, 200 operational. Russia looses so many tanks every month, and actually builds 100-200 new ones every month. New production is 10 tanks a month at best, which is indeed how many Ukraine destroys sometimes in a day. The rest are refurbishments of rapidly declining USSR's stock without anything to replace it. I think it would be appropriate to call it Soviet Union's last stand. > But they are now back on par, possibly better. Their jamming, air defense and rockets are top-notch, possible better than NATOs. That is a wild stretch considering that Russian navy has run away from Crimea at the risk of getting sunk in entirety, Russian air force cannot come even within a hundred kilometers of Crimea without getting shot down, and ground forces are regularly hammered by drone and missile strikes, all while Ukraine has less of everything and is under severe restrictions what it can do with military aid provided to them. I cannot imagine any major NATO country in such a poor position that they cannot fly airplanes over the territory they hold. Claiming victory in such position - as you do - would be downright ridiculous.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  Russia doesn't produce any new tanks, not since the dozen or so T-14s. Remanufactured T-90s are probably close to 10/month while refurbishing t55 and t62 are at 100-200/month.
  - Beijinger 2y ago
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3820768-russia-can-produce-from-100-tanks-each-month-isw.html https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3820768-russia-can-prod...
knowaveragejoe 2y ago
> At the same time, Russia is actively trying to replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, together with BRICS+. If successful, this will have a tremendous impact on the US. I would happily take the other side of this bet.

aguaviva 2y ago

They have not "won the war". Not by any stretch. That's just a pundit's plainly ideology-driven projection. The fact that this author chose to call their book The Defeat of the West, and that its main thesis is that this defeat is due to the “vaporisation of Protestantism" should give one serious pause. Perhaps not the best source to turn to for a serious, impartial military analysis.

Beijinger 2y ago
"Perhaps not the best source to turn to for a serious, impartial military analysis." Fair point. But it is from Emmanuel Todd. Who the f. is Emmanuel Todd? "Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere)."
- aguaviva 2y ago
  It doesn't matter who he is, or what he said when he was 25. His perspective this time around is plainly warped, and his analysis is just as plainly flawed, given the current reality of what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. You can tell that all by yourself, without having to take some supposed visionary's word for it. That's what happens when people get lucky early in their careers. Sadly, it tends to go to their head. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
  - User23 2y ago
    What’s currently going on in Ukraine is they are slowly losing a war of attrition that eventually their allies will lose interest in funding. We don’t have to like that outcome to see that it’s inevitable and has been from the very start. One entirely possible outcome I haven’t seen discussed much is Poland turning on the Ukrainian rump state once Russia finishes annexing the ethnic Russian east.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      The current situation can only be regarded as a stalemate. In the service to which Russia is devoting 10 percent of its GDP, while Western countries are spending 1 percent. We don’t have to like that outcome to see that it’s inevitable and has been from the very start. It's not at all inevitable. Russia has lost many of its optional wars of aggression and foreign intervention, in the past. Putin will also be dead or starting to lose his marbles in a few years, and Russia's overall prospects for stability (even if there were no war at all) do not look particularly good after that.

mopsi 2y ago

> As a comparison: Germany had 3000 tanks during the cold war. Now they have 300, 200 operational. Russia looses so many tanks every month, and actually builds 100-200 new ones every month. New production is 10 tanks a month at best, which is indeed how many Ukraine destroys sometimes in a day. The rest are refurbishments of rapidly declining USSR's stock without anything to replace it. I think it would be appropriate to call it Soviet Union's last stand. > But they are now back on par, possibly better. Their jamming, air defense and rockets are top-notch, possible better than NATOs. That is a wild stretch considering that Russian navy has run away from Crimea at the risk of getting sunk in entirety, Russian air force cannot come even within a hundred kilometers of Crimea without getting shot down, and ground forces are regularly hammered by drone and missile strikes, all while Ukraine has less of everything and is under severe restrictions what it can do with military aid provided to them. I cannot imagine any major NATO country in such a poor position that they cannot fly airplanes over the territory they hold. Claiming victory in such position - as you do - would be downright ridiculous.

throwaway48476 2y ago
Russia doesn't produce any new tanks, not since the dozen or so T-14s. Remanufactured T-90s are probably close to 10/month while refurbishing t55 and t62 are at 100-200/month.
- Beijinger 2y ago
  https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3820768-russia-can-produce-from-100-tanks-each-month-isw.html https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3820768-russia-can-prod...

knowaveragejoe 2y ago

> At the same time, Russia is actively trying to replace the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, together with BRICS+. If successful, this will have a tremendous impact on the US. I would happily take the other side of this bet.