3 ms·
To get a better picture of how this comes about: Microsoft has a study for their own internal product use, and wants to show its efficacy. The results aren’t a
by svnt 2y ago
To get a better picture of how this comes about:
Microsoft has a study for their own internal product use, and wants to show its efficacy.
The results aren’t as broadly successful as one would hope.
Accenture is the kind of company that cooperates and co-markets with large orgs like Microsoft. With ~300 devs in the pool they hardly move the population at all, and they cannot be assumed to be objective since they are building a marketing/consulting division around AI workflows.
The third anonymous company didn’t actually have a randomized controlled trial, so it is difficult to say how one should combine their results with the RCTs. Additionally, I am sure that more than one large technology company went through similar trials and were interested in knowing the efficacy of them. That is to say, we can assume other data exist than just those included in the results.
Why did they select these companies, from a larger sample set? Probably because Microsoft and Accenture are incentivized by adoption, and this third company was picked through p-hacking.
In particular, this statement in the abstract is a very bad sign:
> Though each separate experiment is noisy, combined across all three experiments
It is essentially an admission that individually, the companies don’t have statistically significant results, but when we combine these three (and probably only these three) populations we get significant results. This is not science.
- Delk 2y agoYeah, it does seem fishy. The third company seems a bit weird to include in other ways as well. In raw numbers in table 1, there seem to be exactly zero effects from the use of CoPilot. Through the use of their regression model -- which introduces other predictors such as developer-fixed and week-fixed effects -- they somehow get an estimated effect of +54%(!) from CoPilot in the number of PRs. But the standard deviations are so far through the roof that the +54% is statistically insignificant within the population of 3000 devs. Also, they explain the introduction of the week fixed effect as a means of controlling for holidays etc., but to me it sounds like it could also introduce a lot of unwarranted flexibility into the model. But this is a part where I don't understand their methodology well enough to tell whether that's a problem or not. I generally err towards the benefit of the doubt when I don't fully understand or know something, which is why I focused more on the presentation of the results than on criticizing the study and its methodology in general. I'd have been okay with the summary saying "we got an increase of 27.3% for Microsoft and no statistically significant results for other participants". But perhaps I should have been more critical.