The first two are betting markets, and hence can be safely discounted. As to what Nate really says: Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election

The first two are betting markets, and hence can be safely discounted. As to what Nate really says: Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-elec... There've been similar oscillations in his model in previous, so that's why he cautions us not to make too much of what his model says this particular week. I base my assessment on a variety of factors. You make your bets, I'll make mine.