4 ms·

Because he knows she's the presumptive winner this point, so he has no other choice. Funnily enough, Dick Cheney has just come out on her side as well. Spirit

• eurleif 2y ago
  >she's the presumptive winner this point Polymarket has 51:47 in Trump's favor: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725680439828 https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20... Manifold Markets has 52:47 in Harris's favor: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi... Nate Silver's model has 60:40 in Trump's favor: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-nate-silver-1949866 https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-... The Economist's model has 50:50: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/predi... Not sure how you can say anyone is a presumptive winner at this point.
  • aguaviva 2y ago
    The first two are betting markets, and hence can be safely discounted. As to what Nate really says: Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-elec... There've been similar oscillations in his model in previous, so that's why he cautions us not to make too much of what his model says this particular week. I base my assessment on a variety of factors. You make your bets, I'll make mine.
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