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The goal of 8.8 million charge points by 2030 goal seems within reach given the growth rates presented here. This seems like a major challenge to grid stability

The goal of 8.8 million charge points by 2030 goal seems within reach given the growth rates presented here. This seems like a major challenge to grid stability. How are they going to address this? Or maybe I'm wrong? Maybe they are counting on diminishing returns (urban saturation, slow rural adoption rate, tech/capacity limitations) and real-world constraints (grid capacity, regulation hurdles, high capex/investment risk, land limitation, inconsistent standards, etc.) acting as natural braking mechanism or something? But, if that were the case, maybe the goal is not actually in hand?

mytailorisrich 2y ago
Graph shows a rate of about 250k a year when they'd need about 1,600k a year to reach the goal. At the current rate they'll get to 8.8 million in 32 years... Installation rate must improve drastically.
- Jensson 2y ago
  You need to look at the rate increase. Graph shows a rate of about 100k 3 years ago and 350k today, meaning adding about 70k production per year. To calculate what we have built by 2030 with that rate we get 70 * 5 * 6 / 2 = 1050 from the second derivative and 1750 from the first, so would be 2.8 million points by 2030. Still not exactly there, but would reach the target a few years later, so they aren't that far off from reaching it 2030, just need to increase production a bit faster.
  - mytailorisrich 2y ago
    2.8 million in 2030 is still way off. Bottom line is that target is never going to be met on time and "few years late" will be quite a few in my estimation. I don't think production is the bottleneck. It's the actual installation with all that in entails and the electric infrastructure.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
Obviously the grid can't handle 8.8 million charge points in use simultaneously. It's cars that drive demand, not charge points. If you convert all ICE cars to EV's, you'll add about 20% to electricity usage. If it takes 10 years to convert all new car sales to electric, and another 10 years before most of the old ICE vehicles stop being used, that means we have about 20 years to add 20% to the grid capacity. 1% a year is very feasible.
- thebruce87m 2y ago
  The UK grid estimate a 10% increase https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/electric-vehicles-myths-misconceptions https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/ele... > The highest peak electricity demand in the UK in recent years was 62GW in 2002. Since then, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16% due to improvements in energy efficiency. > Even if we all switched to EVs overnight, we estimate demand would only increase by around 10%. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002, and this is well within the range the grid can capably handle.
choilive 2y ago
Many EU countries are making very large investments in electrification, renewable energy, and energy storage. After factoring in those it's a fairly tractable problem.

mytailorisrich 2y ago

Graph shows a rate of about 250k a year when they'd need about 1,600k a year to reach the goal. At the current rate they'll get to 8.8 million in 32 years... Installation rate must improve drastically.

Jensson 2y ago
You need to look at the rate increase. Graph shows a rate of about 100k 3 years ago and 350k today, meaning adding about 70k production per year. To calculate what we have built by 2030 with that rate we get 70 * 5 * 6 / 2 = 1050 from the second derivative and 1750 from the first, so would be 2.8 million points by 2030. Still not exactly there, but would reach the target a few years later, so they aren't that far off from reaching it 2030, just need to increase production a bit faster.
- mytailorisrich 2y ago
  2.8 million in 2030 is still way off. Bottom line is that target is never going to be met on time and "few years late" will be quite a few in my estimation. I don't think production is the bottleneck. It's the actual installation with all that in entails and the electric infrastructure.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

Obviously the grid can't handle 8.8 million charge points in use simultaneously. It's cars that drive demand, not charge points. If you convert all ICE cars to EV's, you'll add about 20% to electricity usage. If it takes 10 years to convert all new car sales to electric, and another 10 years before most of the old ICE vehicles stop being used, that means we have about 20 years to add 20% to the grid capacity. 1% a year is very feasible.

thebruce87m 2y ago
The UK grid estimate a 10% increase https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/electric-vehicles-myths-misconceptions https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/ele... > The highest peak electricity demand in the UK in recent years was 62GW in 2002. Since then, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16% due to improvements in energy efficiency. > Even if we all switched to EVs overnight, we estimate demand would only increase by around 10%. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002, and this is well within the range the grid can capably handle.

choilive 2y ago

Many EU countries are making very large investments in electrification, renewable energy, and energy storage. After factoring in those it's a fairly tractable problem.