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The singularity is a poorly constructed myth. It is built around the presumption that intelligence is a linear function of CPU power, and that surely as CPU po

The singularity is a poorly constructed myth. It is built around the presumption that intelligence is a linear function of CPU power, and that surely as CPU power rises, so shall intelligence; the problem is, that prediction was made in the 1970s, since which CPU power has risen ten decimal orders of magnitude, and we still don't have much better speech recognition than we did back then, let alone anything even approaching simple reasoning. The ability to detect faces is not a signal that general intelligence is right around the corner.

Symmetry 14y ago
Well, maybe. There are a whole lot of very different things called "The Singularity" and some of them are much more reasonable than others. There's the Cambpellian Singularity, which says that we won't be able to predict what will happen next. Pretty non-controversial as far as it goes. There's the Vingean Singularity, which says that if we ever develop AIs that can think as fast and as well as humans then due to Moore's Law they'll be thinking twice as fast as humans after 2 years, so they'll start designing chips and the period of Moore's law will fall to 1 year, and so on with us reaching infinite computing power in finite time. I think this vision is flawed. Relatedly, there's the Intelligence Explosion Singularity (associated with Yudkowsky), which says that as soon as its AIs designing AIs, smarter AIs will relativly quickly be able to make even smarter AIs and we'll get a "fwoosh" effect, though not to infinity in finite time. I find this unlikely, but can't rule it out. There's one I don't have a handy name for, but lets call it the AI Revolution viewpoint, which is that AIs will cause civilization to switch to a faster mode of progress, just like the Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution did. This one will only look like a singularity in hindsight, and might seem gradual to the people living through it. I think this one is pretty credible. There's the Kurzweilian Singularity, where thanks to Accelerating Change we'll someday pass a point which will arbitrarily be called the Singularity. As far as I can tell this is Kurzweil appropriating the hot word of the moment for his ideas a la Javascript. Then there's the Naive Singularity, which equates processing power with intelligence and then concludes that computers must be getting smarter. This is indeed totally naive and not something we should worry about. I guess the linked paper is evidence that you can substitute a faster computer for smarter AI researchers to some extent, but probably not a very large one.
- Dn_Ab 14y ago
  Your characterization of Vinge's singularity is incorrect. I have never read anything in which he brings up infinity, I.J. Good does though. Vinge's is actually more like your AI revolution except that it will be evident as a singularity only to those looking forward and not to those looking backwards. So instead of using agriculture/industrial divide as an analogy he posits a human/animal divide. As his definition of singularity is pretty strongly tied to comprehension think of it like this - the singularity is the time point after which a 10 year old unmodified human child from 1000 AD can not grow up to understand his or her surroundings.
  - Symmetry 14y ago
    I could have sworn that that argument came from a short piece of non-fiction Vinge wrote which was my first exposure to the whole idea, but I might be mis-remembering because it was a long time ago. Or, given that this was a long time ago, he might have changed his viewpoint.
- deleted 14y ago
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- JohnHaugeland 14y ago
  "There are a whole lot of very different things called "The Singularity" " If the singularity was a legitimate concept with anything approaching experimental evidence, then this could not be true. This observation of yours - with which I agree - suggests to me that The Singularity needs a pope hat. It is instructive to notice that all of "the singularities" are the products of science fiction authors, and in the case of the original, a particularly bad one. There is a delightful level of schadenfreude involved in observing the multiplicity of "The Singularities." In two different ways its name says "there's only one," and yet they still can't agree on topics that are critical and fundamental to the concept itself, like the definition of intelligence, or whether or not to circumcise. Pass the sacramental chalice, please?
  - Dn_Ab 14y ago
    Vinge is a retired math professor, I.J. Good was an accomplished mathematician, Kurzweil makes hard to swallow predictions but is still an accomplished technologist and I happen to very much enjoy Vinge's writing. Regardless, the idea is worth considering independent of who is saying it. I am also sure you know that words - such as variety and polymorphism - have different context specific meanings. Singularity in this case as in the kind of thing you can find on a variety but not on a manifold. The idea of infinite recursive Moore's law fueled intelligence explosions leading to super human intellects by 2030 is something I assign a low probability to. I don't find it hard to believe that there is some point in the future - say 2131 - such that if anyone alive today or previously were transported there, they would never be able to understand what was going on and everyone from that time would think circles around them.

Symmetry 14y ago

Well, maybe. There are a whole lot of very different things called "The Singularity" and some of them are much more reasonable than others. There's the Cambpellian Singularity, which says that we won't be able to predict what will happen next. Pretty non-controversial as far as it goes. There's the Vingean Singularity, which says that if we ever develop AIs that can think as fast and as well as humans then due to Moore's Law they'll be thinking twice as fast as humans after 2 years, so they'll start designing chips and the period of Moore's law will fall to 1 year, and so on with us reaching infinite computing power in finite time. I think this vision is flawed. Relatedly, there's the Intelligence Explosion Singularity (associated with Yudkowsky), which says that as soon as its AIs designing AIs, smarter AIs will relativly quickly be able to make even smarter AIs and we'll get a "fwoosh" effect, though not to infinity in finite time. I find this unlikely, but can't rule it out. There's one I don't have a handy name for, but lets call it the AI Revolution viewpoint, which is that AIs will cause civilization to switch to a faster mode of progress, just like the Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution did. This one will only look like a singularity in hindsight, and might seem gradual to the people living through it. I think this one is pretty credible. There's the Kurzweilian Singularity, where thanks to Accelerating Change we'll someday pass a point which will arbitrarily be called the Singularity. As far as I can tell this is Kurzweil appropriating the hot word of the moment for his ideas a la Javascript. Then there's the Naive Singularity, which equates processing power with intelligence and then concludes that computers must be getting smarter. This is indeed totally naive and not something we should worry about. I guess the linked paper is evidence that you can substitute a faster computer for smarter AI researchers to some extent, but probably not a very large one.

Dn_Ab 14y ago
Your characterization of Vinge's singularity is incorrect. I have never read anything in which he brings up infinity, I.J. Good does though. Vinge's is actually more like your AI revolution except that it will be evident as a singularity only to those looking forward and not to those looking backwards. So instead of using agriculture/industrial divide as an analogy he posits a human/animal divide. As his definition of singularity is pretty strongly tied to comprehension think of it like this - the singularity is the time point after which a 10 year old unmodified human child from 1000 AD can not grow up to understand his or her surroundings.
- Symmetry 14y ago
  I could have sworn that that argument came from a short piece of non-fiction Vinge wrote which was my first exposure to the whole idea, but I might be mis-remembering because it was a long time ago. Or, given that this was a long time ago, he might have changed his viewpoint.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
JohnHaugeland 14y ago
"There are a whole lot of very different things called "The Singularity" " If the singularity was a legitimate concept with anything approaching experimental evidence, then this could not be true. This observation of yours - with which I agree - suggests to me that The Singularity needs a pope hat. It is instructive to notice that all of "the singularities" are the products of science fiction authors, and in the case of the original, a particularly bad one. There is a delightful level of schadenfreude involved in observing the multiplicity of "The Singularities." In two different ways its name says "there's only one," and yet they still can't agree on topics that are critical and fundamental to the concept itself, like the definition of intelligence, or whether or not to circumcise. Pass the sacramental chalice, please?
- Dn_Ab 14y ago
  Vinge is a retired math professor, I.J. Good was an accomplished mathematician, Kurzweil makes hard to swallow predictions but is still an accomplished technologist and I happen to very much enjoy Vinge's writing. Regardless, the idea is worth considering independent of who is saying it. I am also sure you know that words - such as variety and polymorphism - have different context specific meanings. Singularity in this case as in the kind of thing you can find on a variety but not on a manifold. The idea of infinite recursive Moore's law fueled intelligence explosions leading to super human intellects by 2030 is something I assign a low probability to. I don't find it hard to believe that there is some point in the future - say 2131 - such that if anyone alive today or previously were transported there, they would never be able to understand what was going on and everyone from that time would think circles around them.