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China chasing TSMC is probably a fool's errand. They might catch up for a bit, but they'll always be renters in the houses that ASML builds (and they can be evi
by mullingitover 2y ago
China chasing TSMC is probably a fool's errand. They might catch up for a bit, but they'll always be renters in the houses that ASML builds (and they can be evicted/sanctioned out at any time[1]).
Rage Against the Machine said it best: "F** tha G-ride I want the machines that are makin' em."
Call me when they get serious about their domestic lithography business.
[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/china-only-produces-1-of-critical-litho-chipmaking-tools-exposing-it-to-harsh-us-sanctions-investment-in-domestic-toolmakers-looks-to-reverse-the-trend https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ch...
- layer8 2y agoYour link says that they are also chasing ASML. And if they invade Taiwan, it will take the rest of the world a couple of years to replace TSMC, regardless of ASML.
- mullingitover 2y agoThey might be chasing, but I haven't seen anything showing that they're even close to the same time zone as ASML right now. It seems like China invading Taiwan doesn't make any strategic sense until they have a serious alternative to ASML. If they invade they'll never lay eyes on ASML hardware again. However, if they have their own serious domestic ASML competitor, plus a bunch of domestic foundries that could pick up TSMC's orders after an invasion, they have the world over a barrel.
- monocasa 2y agoThey're already practically cut off from ASML. The concern is that they build a domestic competitor to ASML in response.