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If we constrain the topic to the Russo-Ukrainian war, there really isn't a clear preference for either party. I disagree with this analysis. All indicates are
by aguaviva 2y ago
If we constrain the topic to the Russo-Ukrainian war, there really isn't a clear preference for either party.
I disagree with this analysis. All indicates are that a restored Trump administration (particularly with Vance on board) would steer Ukraine to a very severe compromise with Putin (i.e. recognized sovereignty for the Donbas + Crimea + likely then some).
They won't do so "in 24 hours" per Trump's bluster on the subject (like nearly everything else he says, that's just a stunt). And of course the deep state will remind them that it's actually important, and if they insist on disengaging, they should get as much out of Putin in return as they can.
But both ideologically and from their various statements (especially Vance's "I really don't care about Ukraine one way or another"), that's definitely the way they'll be leaning.
Putin knows this of course, that's why it seems he had been hoping (up until Biden's exit from the race) that if he would just keep his a foot to pedal, and keep throwing his people into the wood chopper, then come 2025 there'd be a good chance he'll get to sit face to face with Trump again (whom he normally wouldn't so fond of, but for this issue), as a kind of a Hail Mary pass.
You are right that the Democrats do appear to be dilly-dallying, basically -- and one could dissect this further as to whether it's simply a lack of resolve, or that they simply lack a clear vision of how to bring this thing to an acceptable resolution without incurring too high of a risk of a nuclear escalation (likely it's a bit of both).
But that's very different from the Trump-Vance position (and that of a majority of alt-right types it seems) of simply not giving a fuck about the basic principles of the situation either way, and openly saying so. (Or of perhaps caring sort-of about the basic principles, but being too caught up in their bubble world to understand the basic history of the region, let alone to figure out how to read the tea leaves of the current situation).
I am actually hopeful, as are the Ukrainians I talk to (though they will generally be ready to acknowledge that there multiple paths available to the long-term strategic victory that they ultimately seek). Especially now that Trump and Vance seem to be heading for the ropes.