6 ms·

"Legacy" auto is falling back to combustion because that's what people overwhelmingly want. The majority of people can afford neither the financial, nor the abi

by ghusto 2y ago

"Legacy" auto is falling back to combustion because that's what people overwhelmingly want. The majority of people can afford neither the financial, nor the ability costs that come with electric only vehicles.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Legacy auto can only do this for as long as they don't have to hack and slash to compete against upstarts. US legacy auto is likely to leave China [1], and European automakers will face similar pressures as China comes up to speed as the Clean Tech manufacturer to the world [2]. Global light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year. Tariffs in the US and Canada are avoided by building in Mexico, for example. China is going to flood the world with cheap EVs [3], broadly speaking. This destroys export TAM for US and European automakers, which will force them to shrink due to revenue destruction. I would strongly agree that prices for EVs must be driven below combustion vehicles (we cannot expect people who cannot afford EVs to stretch to buy them; price compression and government incentives are material here), but legacy auto must be driven out of the market if they choose to avoid the electrification transition to maintain their profit levels. If I have to argue why (the emergency that is climate change), there is likely very low value in further discussion. Less profits, as many EVs as possible in the hands of people who drive [4]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroit-three-automakers-should-exit-china-leading-analyst-says-2024-06-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroi... ("Reuters: Detroit Three automakers should exit China, leading analyst says") [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/xi-s-china-ev-dream-came-true-10-years-on-walls-are-going-up https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/xi-s-chin... ("Fast forward to 2024, and China has become the world’s largest auto market and sells more electrified vehicles than any other country, with 9.5 million cars delivered last year. It also controls the majority of the battery supply chain. Homegrown champion BYD Co. dethroned Volkswagen to become the best-selling brand in China and in the last quarter of 2023, surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest producer of EVs. China also overtook Japan as the largest auto exporter, sending 4.14 million units abroad with 1.55 million of them being EVs or plug-in hybrids.") [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-02/how-the-shift-to-electric-cars-is-reshaping-the-global-auto-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-02/how-the-s... ("Bloomberg: How the EV Transition Is Reshaping the Global Auto Industry") [4] https://www.epi.org/blog/uaw-automakers-negotiations/ https://www.epi.org/blog/uaw-automakers-negotiations/ > Profits at the “Big 3” auto companies—Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis— skyrocketed 92% from 2013 to 2022, totaling $250 billion. Forecasts for 2023 expect more than $32 billion in additional profits. CEO pay at the Big 3 companies has jumped by 40% during the same period and the companies paid out nearly $66 billion in shareholder dividend payments and stock buybacks. Based on the data, we can afford it, if we stop enriching those folks ^ I just don't care for the lies that we cannot. If legacy auto must die for the EV transition to accelerate or succeed, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ them's the breaks. These are choices. If legacy auto (both US and EU) makes poor choices, China will force their hand regardless.
1970-01-01 2y ago
Buying or leasing an EV has always been the biggest hurdle for the middle class. With the fed rate cut and soft landing nearly here, I expect we're going to witness an inversion on this hybrid sales trend as affordability finally takes.
- erik_seaberg 2y ago
  The biggest hurdle is being unable to charge a street parked EV; step one is buying a house with a driveway.

by ghusto 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Legacy auto can only do this for as long as they don't have to hack and slash to compete against upstarts. US legacy auto is likely to leave China [1], and European automakers will face similar pressures as China comes up to speed as the Clean Tech manufacturer to the world [2]. Global light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year. Tariffs in the US and Canada are avoided by building in Mexico, for example. China is going to flood the world with cheap EVs [3], broadly speaking. This destroys export TAM for US and European automakers, which will force them to shrink due to revenue destruction. I would strongly agree that prices for EVs must be driven below combustion vehicles (we cannot expect people who cannot afford EVs to stretch to buy them; price compression and government incentives are material here), but legacy auto must be driven out of the market if they choose to avoid the electrification transition to maintain their profit levels. If I have to argue why (the emergency that is climate change), there is likely very low value in further discussion. Less profits, as many EVs as possible in the hands of people who drive [4]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroit-three-automakers-should-exit-china-leading-analyst-says-2024-06-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroi... ("Reuters: Detroit Three automakers should exit China, leading analyst says") [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/xi-s-china-ev-dream-came-true-10-years-on-walls-are-going-up https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-26/xi-s-chin... ("Fast forward to 2024, and China has become the world’s largest auto market and sells more electrified vehicles than any other country, with 9.5 million cars delivered last year. It also controls the majority of the battery supply chain. Homegrown champion BYD Co. dethroned Volkswagen to become the best-selling brand in China and in the last quarter of 2023, surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest producer of EVs. China also overtook Japan as the largest auto exporter, sending 4.14 million units abroad with 1.55 million of them being EVs or plug-in hybrids.") [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-02/how-the-shift-to-electric-cars-is-reshaping-the-global-auto-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-02/how-the-s... ("Bloomberg: How the EV Transition Is Reshaping the Global Auto Industry") [4] https://www.epi.org/blog/uaw-automakers-negotiations/ https://www.epi.org/blog/uaw-automakers-negotiations/ > Profits at the “Big 3” auto companies—Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis— skyrocketed 92% from 2013 to 2022, totaling $250 billion. Forecasts for 2023 expect more than $32 billion in additional profits. CEO pay at the Big 3 companies has jumped by 40% during the same period and the companies paid out nearly $66 billion in shareholder dividend payments and stock buybacks. Based on the data, we can afford it, if we stop enriching those folks ^ I just don't care for the lies that we cannot. If legacy auto must die for the EV transition to accelerate or succeed, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ them's the breaks. These are choices. If legacy auto (both US and EU) makes poor choices, China will force their hand regardless.

1970-01-01 2y ago

Buying or leasing an EV has always been the biggest hurdle for the middle class. With the fed rate cut and soft landing nearly here, I expect we're going to witness an inversion on this hybrid sales trend as affordability finally takes.

erik_seaberg 2y ago
The biggest hurdle is being unable to charge a street parked EV; step one is buying a house with a driveway.