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I don't know why hybrids weren't standard issue 10 years ago. Federal fuel efficiency standards should have mandated them, but instead they spent years locked

by wffurr 2y ago

I don't know why hybrids weren't standard issue 10 years ago. Federal fuel efficiency standards should have mandated them, but instead they spent years locked in a political / culture war battle over this.

01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2y ago
The Prius is over 20 years old and it's been a great option the whole time. I don't know why plug-in hybrids took so long I wish we could have a carbon tax instead of efficiency standards but voters vote based on gas prices so...
- idontwantthis 2y ago
  Plugin hybrids don’t make economic sense. The 2024 Prius Prime costs $5000 more than the regular hybrid. If you are generous and say 9/10 days you drive fewer than 40 miles, so you won’t use any gas, then that means you save about .8 gallons of gas per day. Again being generous with the range. With average gas price that means you are saving $2.64 per day (assuming your charging is free which it is not). That means it would take over 5 years to make back the plugin premium. On top of that, you get worse mileage than the regular hybrid when you are using gas. Edit: You’re also still paying for oil changes, transmission changes, and any other regular or unexpected maintenance on the ICE drive train with a plugin hybrid.
AtlasBarfed 2y ago
I agree, practically every consumer ice vehicle should have a 50 mile all-electric range at this point. I think this is very doable with sodium ion in advanced lfp. I think the issue for investors with a car company is that it represents a lack of ability to handle the evening transition and so it really does Mark your company as a dinosaur and keeps them from properly innovating and transitioning. With sodium ion and advanced lfp, the cost of a very very capable EV is going to permanently drop underneath an ICE. There's simply too much simplification of the drivetrain in EVs once batteries become cheap.
- idontwantthis 2y ago
  See my comment above. They cost more than regular hybrids and save you less money than a full EV. They make no economic sense for consumers.
  - thechao 2y ago
    Why do they cost more? Is it the additional hardware needed for the charging? I have a hard time believing that hardware is $5k. I have an easier time believing that the car manufacturers are gouging people interested in this solution space. This seems like an easy win for legislation: we just mandate that every consumer vehicle has to have a 35-mile minimum all-battery range with plug-in capabilities; the same way we mandate that consumer vehicles have to have catalytic converters.
    - idontwantthis 2y ago
      Mandating something doesn’t make it free. You mandate plugin then you just mandated that all cars cost $5000 (at least) more plus you removed downward price pressure from nonplugins so they will cost even more. It’s an entire second drive train and fuel system. It’s going to cost money. I also forgot to add in the fact that you still have full ICE maintenance costs with a plugin.
      - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
        No it's not the same, I think you are taking cues from the current generations of hybrids which (aside from the Volt) are at best 20 miles all-electric and generally have full car drivetrains doing primary or heavily supplemental power. 1) A decent plugin hybrid has the EV drivetrain: fantastic low end torque and sufficient horsepower to do highway speeds, but without an oversized battery. With a bit of rocket equation, it should be 1/3 the size for a 50-100 mile all-electric EV, or less, considering that 500 mile EVs exist 2) the ICE part gets to run in atkinson cycle and at the ideal RPM for maximum efficiency: it exists to recharge the battery. I almost wonder if a lawnmower motor could generate enough recharge rate (especially if you had a "long range" mode where the recharger kicks in almost immediately after the first 10 miles to start recharging) considering the higher efficiency of modern EV drivetrains. 3) the braking is mostly regenerative, so out goes most brake maintenance. The engine runs at ideal RPMs, and only on long range trips, so the oil life is much longer: the ideal is the engine only runs on long distance trips, and close to 90-95% of miles (certainly in an urban setting, rural would still be heavily served by a battery if its 50-100 miles) are in all electric. It's pretty basic math, if the engine only runs 5% of the time and runs in highway efficiency only, then it's maintenance lifetime is probably 20x longer than a normal engine's use. 4) hopefully it would eventually transition to a fuel cell for more efficiency, flexible fueling, and zero-pollution (aside from carbon in the case of hydrocarbon fuel), which I think if hybrids were mandated 25 years ago would have had an outside chance of happening within 10 years.
Merad 2y ago
Yes, I think this has been a huge missed opportunity. Making hybrids the standard car is a big win for fuel efficiency. Then shifting towards plugin hybrids with a 40-50 mile EV range has the opportunity to radically reduce emissions without giving consumers any concerns about range anxiety. Do this shift over the course of a decade or two, use that time to build out charger infrastructure, _then_ start pushing towards pure EV's.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
dehrmann 2y ago
When I was shopping for a sedan in 2016, part of it was trunk space. You also pay more for a more complex drivetrain that has higher maintenance costs. I already shut off my car's feature to stop the engine at stop lights because I'd rather pay for gas than engine, starter, and battery wear.
- wffurr 2y ago
  The Prius is one of the most reliable vehicles ever made. I don't buy the "higher maintenance costs" argument.

by wffurr 2y ago

01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2y ago

The Prius is over 20 years old and it's been a great option the whole time. I don't know why plug-in hybrids took so long I wish we could have a carbon tax instead of efficiency standards but voters vote based on gas prices so...

idontwantthis 2y ago
Plugin hybrids don’t make economic sense. The 2024 Prius Prime costs $5000 more than the regular hybrid. If you are generous and say 9/10 days you drive fewer than 40 miles, so you won’t use any gas, then that means you save about .8 gallons of gas per day. Again being generous with the range. With average gas price that means you are saving $2.64 per day (assuming your charging is free which it is not). That means it would take over 5 years to make back the plugin premium. On top of that, you get worse mileage than the regular hybrid when you are using gas. Edit: You’re also still paying for oil changes, transmission changes, and any other regular or unexpected maintenance on the ICE drive train with a plugin hybrid.

AtlasBarfed 2y ago

I agree, practically every consumer ice vehicle should have a 50 mile all-electric range at this point. I think this is very doable with sodium ion in advanced lfp. I think the issue for investors with a car company is that it represents a lack of ability to handle the evening transition and so it really does Mark your company as a dinosaur and keeps them from properly innovating and transitioning. With sodium ion and advanced lfp, the cost of a very very capable EV is going to permanently drop underneath an ICE. There's simply too much simplification of the drivetrain in EVs once batteries become cheap.

idontwantthis 2y ago
See my comment above. They cost more than regular hybrids and save you less money than a full EV. They make no economic sense for consumers.
- thechao 2y ago
  Why do they cost more? Is it the additional hardware needed for the charging? I have a hard time believing that hardware is $5k. I have an easier time believing that the car manufacturers are gouging people interested in this solution space. This seems like an easy win for legislation: we just mandate that every consumer vehicle has to have a 35-mile minimum all-battery range with plug-in capabilities; the same way we mandate that consumer vehicles have to have catalytic converters.
  - idontwantthis 2y ago
    Mandating something doesn’t make it free. You mandate plugin then you just mandated that all cars cost $5000 (at least) more plus you removed downward price pressure from nonplugins so they will cost even more. It’s an entire second drive train and fuel system. It’s going to cost money. I also forgot to add in the fact that you still have full ICE maintenance costs with a plugin.
    - AtlasBarfed 2y ago
      No it's not the same, I think you are taking cues from the current generations of hybrids which (aside from the Volt) are at best 20 miles all-electric and generally have full car drivetrains doing primary or heavily supplemental power. 1) A decent plugin hybrid has the EV drivetrain: fantastic low end torque and sufficient horsepower to do highway speeds, but without an oversized battery. With a bit of rocket equation, it should be 1/3 the size for a 50-100 mile all-electric EV, or less, considering that 500 mile EVs exist 2) the ICE part gets to run in atkinson cycle and at the ideal RPM for maximum efficiency: it exists to recharge the battery. I almost wonder if a lawnmower motor could generate enough recharge rate (especially if you had a "long range" mode where the recharger kicks in almost immediately after the first 10 miles to start recharging) considering the higher efficiency of modern EV drivetrains. 3) the braking is mostly regenerative, so out goes most brake maintenance. The engine runs at ideal RPMs, and only on long range trips, so the oil life is much longer: the ideal is the engine only runs on long distance trips, and close to 90-95% of miles (certainly in an urban setting, rural would still be heavily served by a battery if its 50-100 miles) are in all electric. It's pretty basic math, if the engine only runs 5% of the time and runs in highway efficiency only, then it's maintenance lifetime is probably 20x longer than a normal engine's use. 4) hopefully it would eventually transition to a fuel cell for more efficiency, flexible fueling, and zero-pollution (aside from carbon in the case of hydrocarbon fuel), which I think if hybrids were mandated 25 years ago would have had an outside chance of happening within 10 years.

Merad 2y ago

Yes, I think this has been a huge missed opportunity. Making hybrids the standard car is a big win for fuel efficiency. Then shifting towards plugin hybrids with a 40-50 mile EV range has the opportunity to radically reduce emissions without giving consumers any concerns about range anxiety. Do this shift over the course of a decade or two, use that time to build out charger infrastructure, _then_ start pushing towards pure EV's.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

dehrmann 2y ago

When I was shopping for a sedan in 2016, part of it was trunk space. You also pay more for a more complex drivetrain that has higher maintenance costs. I already shut off my car's feature to stop the engine at stop lights because I'd rather pay for gas than engine, starter, and battery wear.

wffurr 2y ago
The Prius is one of the most reliable vehicles ever made. I don't buy the "higher maintenance costs" argument.