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>> Fundamentally, we have no evidence of anything that will happen in the future. Yeah, by this line of thought Jesus will descend from Heaven and save us all.
by jowdones 2y ago
>> Fundamentally, we have no evidence of anything that will happen in the future.
Yeah, by this line of thought Jesus will descend from Heaven and save us all.
By the same line of fantasy, "give us billions to bring AGI", why not "gimme a billion to bring Jesus. I'll pray really hard, I promise!"
It's all become a disgusting scam, effectively just religious. Believe in AGI that's all there is to it. In practice it's just as (un) likely as scientists spontaneously creating life out of primordial soup concoctions.
- jml78 2y agoThis reply seems eerily similar to folks months/years before the wright brothers proved flight was indeed possible. All the building evidence was there but people just refused to believe it was possible. I am not buying that AI right now is going to displace every job or change the world in the next 5 years but I would t bet against world impacts in that timefram. The writing is in the wall. I am old enough to remember AI efforts in the late 80s and early 90s. We saw how very little progress was made. The progress made in the past 10 years is pretty insane.
- trashtester 2y agoPrecisely. I remember back in the late 90s, some Particle Physics papers were published that used neural nets to replace hand crafted statistical features. While the power was not amazing, I've kind of assumed since then that scale was what would be needed. I then half-way forgot about this, until I saw the results from Alexnet. Since then, the capabilities of the models have generally been keeping up with how they were scaled, at least within about 1 OOM. If that continues, the next 5-20 years are going to be perhaps the most significant in history.