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I agree that AGI is a meaningless term. I'm intentionally including FSD and LLMs under the same category of technologies that will have a huge impact. The poin

• oska 2y ago
  Putting aside my (trenchant) philosophical issues with the term 'AI', I also don't think just pragmatically that it's a good categorical label. We both appear to agree that Machine Learning is a very powerful technology that will have huge impacts. Machine Learning requires (and will continue to require) a lot of compute and thus large costs but will also, almost certainly, produce great profits in some domains (FSD being one). It's a lot less clear to me that LLMs will 1) continue to require lots of compute beyond the short term (languages can get close to being 'solved') or 2) that LLMs will generate substantial profits because a) the model can escape capture from a monopoly player far more easily and b) while useful for translation, pulling summarised data from a corpus, recognition of voice commands, etc, none of these applications actually make for the kind of profound impacts that ML is capable of, because none of them transcend human ability like ML has the power to do.
  • gitfan86 2y ago
    Reasoning and MultiModal are emerging out of the larger LLMs. That opens up more use cases, which then drive demand for inference. And that also drives demand for more research. It is hard to say exactly which use cases are going to be huge in a year but it seems very likely that more use cases will open up given how widely you could apply even a small amount of visual reasoning with robotics.