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We need to learn to recognize the difference between something that's never going to happen for either physical or economic/social/structural reasons, and somet
by bradleyjg 2y ago
We need to learn to recognize the difference between something that's never going to happen for either physical or economic/social/structural reasons, and something that is just really difficult and takes a long time.
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I always think of this when I think about fusion and the irritating "fusion is 20 years away and always will be" meme. In reality fusion has been edging closer, and closer, and closer for decades. Like EUV lithography it's just incredibly hard and requires a ton of capital and time and some of the smartest people on Earth to make it a reality.
Never is a very long time, so I’m not going to say never. But it’s not at all certain that when all those smartest people declare victory we’ll have something that doesn’t make economic sense because the upfront capital costs are too high even if the theoretical (at that point) full lifecycle kWh cost is low.