> [T]he coloured regions represent impact probabilities (to 1, 3, and 5 sigma). The red-orange-yellow area shows where the asteroid would reach Earth's surface

> [T]he coloured regions represent impact probabilities (to 1, 3, and 5 sigma). The red-orange-yellow area shows where the asteroid would reach Earth's surface if there were no atmosphere in the way. > > But there is an atmosphere! So we also mark in green where the asteroid will be when it is at an altitude of 100 km. This is roughly where it will begin to break up and therefore where observers could start seeing a fireball. > > The red line would be the asteroid's trajectory between those two points, if it were still one solid object, which it won't be. from https://x.com/esaoperations/status/1831349538583445693 https://x.com/esaoperations/status/1831349538583445693