4 ms·

> On the other hand, what's the chance of something like this happening with a much bigger asteroid. The same as it's always been, which is to say you can live

> On the other hand, what's the chance of something like this happening with a much bigger asteroid. The same as it's always been, which is to say you can live your life without worrying about it. If our technology advances such that we can observe/find more and more of these, that doesn't affect the chances that a particularly sized asteroid hits the earth or not.

sandworm101 2y ago
>> such that we can observe/find more and more of these, that doesn't affect the chances that a particularly sized asteroid hits the earth or not. Maybe under classical rules, but we know know that the act of observation collapses the range of possible outcomes, potentially locking us into a collision by an asteroid that previously existed only as a probability cloud.
- dmd 2y ago
  That's not how any of this works.
- ivanjermakov 2y ago
  As far as we know, quantum effects do not apply to big space rocks
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    ?? quantum effects apply to everything, but for large objects the expectation is classical
    - krisoft 2y ago
      Curious use of the double questions marks when the following sentence reveals that seemingly you did understand the point the commenter was making.
      - whimsicalism 2y ago
        because the claim “quantum effects do not apply to large objects” is not the same as “large objects behave classically in expectation”. the former claim is flat false
- toss1 2y ago
  Ya, if your "asteroid" is a subatomic particle in the quantum regime, maybe. But the impact of one such particle, even ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, can be safely ignored. Everything of asteroid size, or on the Torino Scale [0] is in the realm described by classical mechanical physics, and it will merrily follow it's existing trajectory whether or not we know about it in advance. So, the only question is whether or not it's better to know it's arriving some hours/days/weeks in advance. * Certainly better in cases like this (observable but harmless). * Definitely would be better in cases like the Chelyabinsk meteor [1] which caused a fair amount of damage and some injuries, if people would be given a warning to avoid being near windows, etc. * Absolutely better in cases of regional devastation to global catastrophe where we have time and resources to alter the trajectory to reduce or eliminate harm. Even just enough lead time to only move many of the people out of the impact damage region is a definite benefit. * YMMV in cases of in cases of regional devastation to global catastrophe where we lack time and resources to alter the trajectory or move people. Is it better to know you'll die in X hours or be surprised? So, I'd say everything below Torino-5 is definitely a good discovery (I think this is a Torino-0], and everything above depends on circumstances. Overall, a very good idea. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  it wouldn’t make it more likely and the chance of an asteroid deviating from classical trajectory even by a centimeter is less likely than any event ever observed before
- mr_toad 2y ago
  The impact of a photon on a 1 meter wide asteroid is not going to change its momentum in any meaningful way. The uncertainty around its position and momentum arising from quantum mechanics is effectively zero.

sandworm101 2y ago

>> such that we can observe/find more and more of these, that doesn't affect the chances that a particularly sized asteroid hits the earth or not. Maybe under classical rules, but we know know that the act of observation collapses the range of possible outcomes, potentially locking us into a collision by an asteroid that previously existed only as a probability cloud.

dmd 2y ago
That's not how any of this works.
ivanjermakov 2y ago
As far as we know, quantum effects do not apply to big space rocks
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  ?? quantum effects apply to everything, but for large objects the expectation is classical
  - krisoft 2y ago
    Curious use of the double questions marks when the following sentence reveals that seemingly you did understand the point the commenter was making.
    - whimsicalism 2y ago
      because the claim “quantum effects do not apply to large objects” is not the same as “large objects behave classically in expectation”. the former claim is flat false
toss1 2y ago
Ya, if your "asteroid" is a subatomic particle in the quantum regime, maybe. But the impact of one such particle, even ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, can be safely ignored. Everything of asteroid size, or on the Torino Scale [0] is in the realm described by classical mechanical physics, and it will merrily follow it's existing trajectory whether or not we know about it in advance. So, the only question is whether or not it's better to know it's arriving some hours/days/weeks in advance. * Certainly better in cases like this (observable but harmless). * Definitely would be better in cases like the Chelyabinsk meteor [1] which caused a fair amount of damage and some injuries, if people would be given a warning to avoid being near windows, etc. * Absolutely better in cases of regional devastation to global catastrophe where we have time and resources to alter the trajectory to reduce or eliminate harm. Even just enough lead time to only move many of the people out of the impact damage region is a definite benefit. * YMMV in cases of in cases of regional devastation to global catastrophe where we lack time and resources to alter the trajectory or move people. Is it better to know you'll die in X hours or be surprised? So, I'd say everything below Torino-5 is definitely a good discovery (I think this is a Torino-0], and everything above depends on circumstances. Overall, a very good idea. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor
whimsicalism 2y ago
it wouldn’t make it more likely and the chance of an asteroid deviating from classical trajectory even by a centimeter is less likely than any event ever observed before
mr_toad 2y ago
The impact of a photon on a 1 meter wide asteroid is not going to change its momentum in any meaningful way. The uncertainty around its position and momentum arising from quantum mechanics is effectively zero.