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The problems with the logic I see are: 1. Several years of lower growth, after years of higher growth, can have many causes. Many might be temporary, or reflec
by Nevermark 2y ago
The problems with the logic I see are:
1. Several years of lower growth, after years of higher growth, can have many causes. Many might be temporary, or reflect nontrivial time dynamics between growth factors & their results.
2. The digital transition was long in place before 2018. So that linkage looks very weak.
3. AI GDP growth due to AI is just getting going anywhere. So no link at all to those last several years.
4. Startup numbers don’t always reflect industry adoption numbers. Growth comes from many places.
I do think AI is going to eat up a lot of the economy. It is ultimately a foundational tech, like electricity & computation. And with high specialization potential, like software.
And AI tech has been improving quickly for many years now.
But even with explosive growth that will take time.
I expect a lot of bright people in Germany are aware of that likelihood.