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https://theeyewall.com/never-call-it-a-bust-hurricane-season-takes-a-late-august-siesta-so-whats-going-on/ https://theeyewall.com/never-call-it-a-bust-hurricane

by sjs382 2y ago

https://theeyewall.com/never-call-it-a-bust-hurricane-season-takes-a-late-august-siesta-so-whats-going-on/ https://theeyewall.com/never-call-it-a-bust-hurricane-season... > So despite the perception that this season has been slow to start, it actually has not been. In fact, 2024 is in rarefied air in terms of ACE to date. This perception might have to do with storm inflation, or the idea that we are naming more storms today than we did, say, 20 or 30 years ago. In 2020, basically the benchmark for recent historically active seasons, today marked the formation date for Hurricane Laura, the 12th named storm of the season. Here we are in 2024 sitting at five, and it’s no wonder the perception is skewed. Despite having more than twice as many storms to this point in 2020, we only had half the ACE (26 vs. 55 this year). > We’ve had a “bang for our buck” season so far with quality storms over quantity as, say, in 2020. And while we are in a lull now, the setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September. Never call it a bust. If it is one, we can discuss why in November.

rufus_foreman 2y ago
>> And while we are in a lull now, the setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September. Never call it a bust. Check the date. This was written more than 7 to 10 days ago. It's already wrong.
- sjs382 2y ago
  I'm aware. It's still relevant. Even with the August lull, we've had a very active season so far. We're 4 days into September and activity has already cranked up. If you're counting the number of cyclones, you're counting something different.
  - rufus_foreman 2y ago
    >> I'm aware. It's still relevant. If someone predicts "X will happen in the next 7 to 10 days" and 7 to 10 days later (or 15 days later, in this case), X does not happen, their prediction is not "still relevant", it's wrong. The sources you are reading made predictions that turned out not to be true. Do you update your confidence in the sources you are reading in that case? Or do something else...
    - sjs382 2y ago
      The "X" here is that "setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September", not that "we'll definitely see more cyclones in September". You're grading a weather forecaster pass/fail on a prediction that didn't make. Which, I guess is your prerogative... If a forecaster says that there's a 90% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, that doesn't mean they were wrong and doesn't mean that the forecast was useless.

by sjs382 2y ago

rufus_foreman 2y ago

>> And while we are in a lull now, the setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September. Never call it a bust. Check the date. This was written more than 7 to 10 days ago. It's already wrong.

sjs382 2y ago
I'm aware. It's still relevant. Even with the August lull, we've had a very active season so far. We're 4 days into September and activity has already cranked up. If you're counting the number of cyclones, you're counting something different.
- rufus_foreman 2y ago
  >> I'm aware. It's still relevant. If someone predicts "X will happen in the next 7 to 10 days" and 7 to 10 days later (or 15 days later, in this case), X does not happen, their prediction is not "still relevant", it's wrong. The sources you are reading made predictions that turned out not to be true. Do you update your confidence in the sources you are reading in that case? Or do something else...
  - sjs382 2y ago
    The "X" here is that "setup is probably going to change in 7 to 10 days to allow things to crank up in September", not that "we'll definitely see more cyclones in September". You're grading a weather forecaster pass/fail on a prediction that didn't make. Which, I guess is your prerogative... If a forecaster says that there's a 90% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, that doesn't mean they were wrong and doesn't mean that the forecast was useless.