13 ms·
The ultimate conclusion of which is likely that both parties will decay to picking the secret value/first guess randomly (although I'm not sure if the optimal d
by kibwen 2y ago
The ultimate conclusion of which is likely that both parties will decay to picking the secret value/first guess randomly (although I'm not sure if the optimal distribution is perfectly flat?), which is also something that we can model.
- gcanyon 2y agoSeems like the distribution definitely won’t be flat since the guesser can randomly choose any of the numbers from 37 to 64 as a first guess without losing anything on the large side, so Ballmer starting with any of those increases his chance of having to pay out the $5. Likewise for other numbers there are nuances to what can be guessed.
- alain94040 2y agoBut if you assume that the opponent knows that they shouldn't pick between 37-64, doesn't that change your odds? The game theory here is similar to another quiz "Guess 1/3 of the average". You are really trying to guess how deep the other has thought about the problem, so you can tell which strategy they settled on, and then you adapt your strategy based on that. Of course, it's a loop.
- gcanyon 2y agoYep, definitely not just what I said. I was saying that guaranteed it won't work out to an even distribution, not what the distribution would be.