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> 1. Just buy when the price is low and random variation will move the price higher eventually (or short when the price is high). 1. How do you know when the p
by onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> 1. Just buy when the price is low and random variation will move the price higher eventually (or short when the price is high).
1. How do you know when the price is high or low? The market can remain irrational for a very long time (longer than you can stay solvent).
2. You can easily lose money shorting when you're right. People do it all the time.
- corimaith 2y agoIf the market is assigning random values you could easily just use the uniform distribution to model what is high or low; Intuitively the median would the demarcating line.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoThe market is a fractal, and if you get blown up at any point, it doesn't matter if in the long-run you'll win. You can't blow up. You're not the House at the casino.
- pixl97 2y agoIsn't this just the saying "time in the market beats timing the market"
- aetherson 2y agoThe very idea that the "market can remain irrational" implies a non-random price algorithm.