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Chaotic doesn't necessarily imply there is no way to make pretty accurate forecasts for some horizons (weather would be an example of that).
by RandomLensman 2y ago
Chaotic doesn't necessarily imply there is no way to make pretty accurate forecasts for some horizons (weather would be an example of that).
- immibis 2y agoSome people, like Warren Buffett, do exactly that. But the forecasting is very difficult. It's a full time job for them, and they have the industry connections to obtain information that you or I can't.
- tim333 2y agoBuffett says he doesn't generally believe in market forecasting, he sticks to figuring the prospects of individual businesses, which simplifies things a bit.
- bell-cot 2y agoYep. Plus, any investment strategy which involves "if I'm as good at this as Warren Buffett" is 99.999% likely to fail.