SPOILER (Note that the article gives the answer, and discusses arriving at the answer. So go read it first.) Article opens with a puzzle. This is commenting

SPOILER (Note that the article gives the answer, and discusses arriving at the answer. So go read it first.) Article opens with a puzzle. This is commenting on the article's explanation .. avoiding some words in the comment just so this spoiler doesn't spoil at a glance, you'd have to think about the following before reading: Curiously, this article doesn't touch on an instantaneous and no-maths intuition about what can (or what cannot) come up as the set after all draws including your first. There are a finite set of possible sets in the container. One interesting set is ruled out by the first draw: there is a set it cannot be. With that set ruled out, you're at least (sets/(sets-1)) more likely the next draw isn't from the missing and interesting set that is intuitively known to you. Further, if one did do this in the real world, it's intuitively evident that the missing set and its inverse would be more likely chosen for the container due to their interestingness. (The article alludes to this when it points out the sets are not coin flips, they are deliberately selected by a human.) That tips the odds even more in your intuition's favor of how the probabilities must balance. So I'd argue this one is solvable by psychology as an alternative to math.