This logic is good as a first approximation but completely breaks down in situations like this. In geopolitics there are simply so many unknown variables that i

This logic is good as a first approximation but completely breaks down in situations like this. In geopolitics there are simply so many unknown variables that it is completely inscrutable from the outside. Plus, state actors do seemingly dumb and irrational things all the time. Also, maybe the FUD caused was a desirable outcome in its own right.