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I Said Hybrids Were The Future. Was I Right? [video]

4 points by yamrzou 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
melling 2y ago
Nope. The future 10 years from now is a lot more EVs. The entire subject turned political and people never admit they were wrong so I’m happy to just wait it out.
- audunw 2y ago
  She does say that the long term future is probably BEVs. There is a good point though, since battery production is still limited it’s good to make hybrids that get a lot of efficiency improvements for a small battery. But it doesn’t make sense at all in the long term, and since hybrids will drive the expansion of EV motor and battery production it’s a technology that will inevitably kill itself. You can also think of it this way: 1. Hybrids are better than ICE because it’s just plain dumb to waste energy in the breaks. 2. If you’ve already got a battery it’s silly not to make it a bit bigger and be able to charge it overnight and cut your fuel costs for your commute. So you get plug-in hybrids. 3. Now you just gotta make the battery even bigger, and you can cut outs LOT of complexity and drastically reduce operating costs. If you get up to 70kWh or so you will only go through a few charge cycles a year, so then for an average driver the battery will last about as long as the car itself too (probably about 20 years on average). But we need a LOT more battery factories if every car needs a 50-90kWh battery. Fortunately that’s coming.
ZeroGravitas 2y ago
EV adoption is basically a measure of how much your government is captured by fossil fuel interests.
- audunw 2y ago
  Do you mean inversely? I’m not sure I see the connection. Norway is an oil country, and has a huge EV adoption rate. Though to be fair it’s also one of the few oil countries that have managed to keep its oil/gas industry from taking over its whole economy. It’s not exactly Qatar. Still. The fossil fuel interests are strong in the government Netherlands has a high adoption rate but is a fairly mixed economy at this point. China is not an oil/gas country. It’s critically dependent on Middle Eastern oil supplies. And it’s also a leader in EV adoption. So you’ve got both sides of the spectrum here, and the middle.
  - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
    Yes, I meant inversely. I thought that would be obvious, but given some of the absolutely wild takes you see here in relation to climate and renewables, I guess I should have specified. Norway has oil, but doesn't let the industry dictate scientific fact, because that would be silly.

4 points by yamrzou 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Nope. The future 10 years from now is a lot more EVs. The entire subject turned political and people never admit they were wrong so I’m happy to just wait it out.

audunw 2y ago
She does say that the long term future is probably BEVs. There is a good point though, since battery production is still limited it’s good to make hybrids that get a lot of efficiency improvements for a small battery. But it doesn’t make sense at all in the long term, and since hybrids will drive the expansion of EV motor and battery production it’s a technology that will inevitably kill itself. You can also think of it this way: 1. Hybrids are better than ICE because it’s just plain dumb to waste energy in the breaks. 2. If you’ve already got a battery it’s silly not to make it a bit bigger and be able to charge it overnight and cut your fuel costs for your commute. So you get plug-in hybrids. 3. Now you just gotta make the battery even bigger, and you can cut outs LOT of complexity and drastically reduce operating costs. If you get up to 70kWh or so you will only go through a few charge cycles a year, so then for an average driver the battery will last about as long as the car itself too (probably about 20 years on average). But we need a LOT more battery factories if every car needs a 50-90kWh battery. Fortunately that’s coming.

ZeroGravitas 2y ago

EV adoption is basically a measure of how much your government is captured by fossil fuel interests.

audunw 2y ago
Do you mean inversely? I’m not sure I see the connection. Norway is an oil country, and has a huge EV adoption rate. Though to be fair it’s also one of the few oil countries that have managed to keep its oil/gas industry from taking over its whole economy. It’s not exactly Qatar. Still. The fossil fuel interests are strong in the government Netherlands has a high adoption rate but is a fairly mixed economy at this point. China is not an oil/gas country. It’s critically dependent on Middle Eastern oil supplies. And it’s also a leader in EV adoption. So you’ve got both sides of the spectrum here, and the middle.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  Yes, I meant inversely. I thought that would be obvious, but given some of the absolutely wild takes you see here in relation to climate and renewables, I guess I should have specified. Norway has oil, but doesn't let the industry dictate scientific fact, because that would be silly.