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As with all things China - the numbers are debated - but here's a source from the same website that there's no growth since 2022: https://www.carbonbrief.org/an

As with all things China - the numbers are debated - but here's a source from the same website that there's no growth since 2022: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-contradictory-coal-data-clouds-chinas-co2-emissions-rebound-in-2022/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-contradictory-coal-data...

lolinder 2y ago
That's in 2022, not since 2022—the date on that is in early 2023, so it predates my linked article by a year. And even your source doesn't say "there was no growth" it says "the numbers for 2022 are confusing and contradictory". From your article: > The scale of the uncertainty over the true nature of China’s coal demand means it is hard to establish whether there was an overall rise or fall in the country’s CO2 emissions in 2022. This difference could have global implications for action on climate change. > Whether the official coal data for 2022 is correct or not, the country moved further off track against its near-term targets for carbon and energy intensity. Also, it's measuring something different—emissions in the year—while the article I linked is talking about new coal construction. New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  > New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming. It's not that simple. * The power plants are running at lower capacities: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants * Not all coal is equal. High-volatile bituminous coals have ~5% less emissions: https://gaftp.epa.gov/ap42/ch01/s01/reference/ref_77%20c01s01_1995.pdf https://gaftp.epa.gov/ap42/ch01/s01/reference/ref_77%20c01s0... * Some of the new plants are "clean" (not actually clean, but produce less emissions): https://globalenergyprize.org/en/2024/03/29/china-remains-world-leader-in-clean-coal-fired-power-generation-technologies/ https://globalenergyprize.org/en/2024/03/29/china-remains-wo... * You can build newer, more efficient coal power plants (~45%) which slightly reduce the amount of coal you need to burn at older, less efficient coal power plants (~33%): https://www.google.com/search?q=how+efficient+are+newer+coal+power+plants+vs+older&sca_esv=0568c64b8556c91d&sca_upv=1&sxsrf=ADLYWIJw5tv6lcEj5kglNkYpUeiTwLNXAw%3A1725243015181&source=hp&ei=hx7VZoLKCKjEp84PjcjwkQQ&iflsig=AL9hbdgAAAAAZtUsl-Y7j57zvsgV1zF8O79Z0ru-_TEr&ved=0ahUKEwjCqcaIl6OIAxUo4skDHQ0kPEIQ4dUDCBk&uact=5&oq=how+efficient+are+newer+coal+power+plants+vs+older&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjJob3cgZWZmaWNpZW50IGFyZSBuZXdlciBjb2FsIHBvd2VyIHBsYW50cyB2cyBvbGRlcjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCkjtL1AAWM4ucAB4AJABAJgBpAGgAbYjqgEFMzUuMTW4AQPIAQD4AQGYAjKgAp8kwgIEECMYJ8ICChAjGIAEGCcYigXCAgoQABiABBhDGIoFwgILEAAYgAQYkQIYigXCAhEQLhiABBixAxjRAxiDARjHAcICChAuGIAEGEMYigXCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGBQYhwLCAgYQABgWGB7CAgcQABiABBgNwgIFECEYoAHCAgUQIRirAsICBRAhGJ8FwgILEAAYgAQYhgMYigXCAggQABiABBiiBMICBxAhGAoYqwKYAwCSBwUzNC4xNqAHu6cD&sclient=gws-wiz https://www.google.com/search?q=how+efficient+are+newer+coal... * ~5% of the new additions replaced retirements.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    Even factoring all that in, building that much new coal is a leading indicator for emissions. It just might be less emissions than building that much new coal two decades ago would have been.

lolinder 2y ago

That's in 2022, not since 2022—the date on that is in early 2023, so it predates my linked article by a year. And even your source doesn't say "there was no growth" it says "the numbers for 2022 are confusing and contradictory". From your article: > The scale of the uncertainty over the true nature of China’s coal demand means it is hard to establish whether there was an overall rise or fall in the country’s CO2 emissions in 2022. This difference could have global implications for action on climate change. > Whether the official coal data for 2022 is correct or not, the country moved further off track against its near-term targets for carbon and energy intensity. Also, it's measuring something different—emissions in the year—while the article I linked is talking about new coal construction. New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> New coal construction is pretty easy to measure relative to emissions, and is a leading indicator suggesting future emissions are coming. It's not that simple. * The power plants are running at lower capacities: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants * Not all coal is equal. High-volatile bituminous coals have ~5% less emissions: https://gaftp.epa.gov/ap42/ch01/s01/reference/ref_77%20c01s01_1995.pdf https://gaftp.epa.gov/ap42/ch01/s01/reference/ref_77%20c01s0... * Some of the new plants are "clean" (not actually clean, but produce less emissions): https://globalenergyprize.org/en/2024/03/29/china-remains-world-leader-in-clean-coal-fired-power-generation-technologies/ https://globalenergyprize.org/en/2024/03/29/china-remains-wo... * You can build newer, more efficient coal power plants (~45%) which slightly reduce the amount of coal you need to burn at older, less efficient coal power plants (~33%): https://www.google.com/search?q=how+efficient+are+newer+coal+power+plants+vs+older&sca_esv=0568c64b8556c91d&sca_upv=1&sxsrf=ADLYWIJw5tv6lcEj5kglNkYpUeiTwLNXAw%3A1725243015181&source=hp&ei=hx7VZoLKCKjEp84PjcjwkQQ&iflsig=AL9hbdgAAAAAZtUsl-Y7j57zvsgV1zF8O79Z0ru-_TEr&ved=0ahUKEwjCqcaIl6OIAxUo4skDHQ0kPEIQ4dUDCBk&uact=5&oq=how+efficient+are+newer+coal+power+plants+vs+older&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjJob3cgZWZmaWNpZW50IGFyZSBuZXdlciBjb2FsIHBvd2VyIHBsYW50cyB2cyBvbGRlcjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCjIHECEYoAEYCkjtL1AAWM4ucAB4AJABAJgBpAGgAbYjqgEFMzUuMTW4AQPIAQD4AQGYAjKgAp8kwgIEECMYJ8ICChAjGIAEGCcYigXCAgoQABiABBhDGIoFwgILEAAYgAQYkQIYigXCAhEQLhiABBixAxjRAxiDARjHAcICChAuGIAEGEMYigXCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGBQYhwLCAgYQABgWGB7CAgcQABiABBgNwgIFECEYoAHCAgUQIRirAsICBRAhGJ8FwgILEAAYgAQYhgMYigXCAggQABiABBiiBMICBxAhGAoYqwKYAwCSBwUzNC4xNqAHu6cD&sclient=gws-wiz https://www.google.com/search?q=how+efficient+are+newer+coal... * ~5% of the new additions replaced retirements.
- lolinder 2y ago
  Even factoring all that in, building that much new coal is a leading indicator for emissions. It just might be less emissions than building that much new coal two decades ago would have been.