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> MacBook belies that you seem to not realize how insignificant those sales were to Apple’s revenue Unless we look at the actual data (i.e. Mac revenue was alw

• vlovich123 2y ago
  I think you're making some key important reasoning mistakes. First, look at it as a percentage of annual revenue (numbers from ChatGPT so may be off somewhere): 2001 (ipod initial launch at end of year): 4.1B/5.36B, 76% Mac, <1% iPod 2002: 4.3B/5.74B 74% Mac, 2.5% iPod 2003: 4.9B/6.21B 79% Mac, 20% iPod 2004 (Windows support added late 2003): 5.3B/8.28B 64% Mac, 21.7% iPod 2005: 6.2B/13.93B 38% Mac, 44.5% iPod 2006: 7.4B 38% Mac, 40% iPod 2007 (iPhone launch - should cannibalize ipod): 10.3B/24.6B 42% Mac, 33% iPod 2008: 14.2B/37.49B 38% Mac, 24% iPod 2009: 16.4B/42.91B 38% Mac, 18% iPod 2010: 17.2B/65.2B 26% Mac, 12.7% iPod When I say it's "insignificant" I don't mean to say that Apple could have cancelled it and it wouldn't have mattered. Mac still remains a meaningful pillar of their product lineup even though it only contributes ~10% of revenues. What you have to do is consider that Apple leadership views it as an ecosystem. Mac by itself isn't a lucrative or really important business. However, it's importance is that it makes sure that a customer in their ecosystem always has an Apple product they can buy when they need something. Importantly, if they have an iPhone they're more likely to buy a Mac and if they have a Mac they're more likely to buy an iPhone (& now Watch, AirPods etc). The refresh rates for these are also different enough that you're likely to remain stuck there by default once you get into the ecosystem because it's just an easier experience. What I'm saying is that the strategic focus and resources was not really on Mac because Apple leadership did not see growth there by itself unless it was as an attachment to the iPod. You can see in the % numbers where iPod took over Mac as contributing a huge portion of % to their bottom line as soon as they made it generally available and that Mac sales themselves only started going up like crazy once iPod became generally available to everyone. Similarly, once the iPhone comes out we see it crazily cannibalizing iPod sales. At that point strategically the iPod barely got any attention. They didn't cancel it until 2022 because it was still bringing in significant revenue streams (+ a form factor Apple didn't have a replacement for until they got the Watch). Additionally, the overall laptop market has been shrinking even as Apple has been growing which is why their marketshare in laptops is so large even though it's comparatively such a small product for them. So while the revenue from Mac was important from a "keep working on this" perspective & "ecosystem play", the vast majority of resources, focus, and energy were definitely thrown at iPod & then iPhone because of how much bigger the opportunity was and that even for Mac iPod and iPhone were the flywheel engines driving growth in those spaces. If you're taking "insignificant" as the cancellation point for Mac, I think it would be that they succeed in their pitch that the Vision lineup is a Mac replacement. If they manage to succeed in that product line, Mac won't be much longer for this world.
  • bschmidt1 2y ago
    He shows real data, you use ChatGPT, modify the timeline plus admit the numbers are off - yet you say he's making the mistakes? High level: You're trying to make the case that iPhones were immediately more successful than the conventional market leaders like Razr and Blackberry when that's not the case by far - it wasn't true for several years. When someone shows that's wrong with numbers (e.g. 130 million Razrs sold in 2 years vs iPhone's 6 million in 2 years) you say something like "yeah but they were new to the space!" But that's totally peripheral, and counter to your original claim. You'll never convince those of us who were 18-24 years old when iPhone released what happened. You obviously don't have a clue, probably were a child or out of the country at the time because you're using ChatGPT to pull up (false) info we all know intuitively. Other awful takes: > Macbook sales were insignificant False. > Mac by itself isn't a lucrative or really important business. Lol. Saying $10 billion a year is not lucrative is crazy. Saying that 30%+ market share on the laptop market is not important is crazy. > Once the iPhone comes out we see it crazily cannibalizing iPod sales. At that point strategically the iPod barely got any attention. Nobody ever compared iPhone to iPod - we were talking about feature phones of the day like Razr, Blackberry, Nokia, etc. Most of your paragraphs are pure conjecture.
    • vlovich123 2y ago
      I don’t think identity is relevant but since you’ve made it an issue, I was in fact an intern at Apple working on the first iPhone when it launched and continued working on mobile phones for a long time after (eg worked fully time on WebOS with a bunch of iPhone veterans since a large contingent of them started it). You may want to be careful about the blind assumptions you’re making and degrading into ad hominem attacks is beneath the standards for this site. As for the ChatGPT dig, for what it’s worth I spot checked various numbers that they were consistent with other sources and Apple’s official Q4 numbers. If you can point out specific issues I’d be happy to correct. I called it out simply in case someone wanted to triple check the numbers. But again, please refrain from baseless attacks and point out actual errors in the facts presented if any. I pointed out that Apple on initial launch was the #2 provider outselling ALL windows mobile manufacturers including Nokia. They were widely recognized as completely reinventing the smartphone market even at the time which you can tell because Google had an “oh shit” moment with Android to competent rethink the OS to build it around multitouch. I don’t know what else to tell you. This is based on reporting and direct anecdotal conversations I have had with Google and Apple coworkers that related that history to me contemporaneously. The successful Razr version was released a year before and Motorola was a very mature cell phone company that basically introduced phones worldwide right away similar to how Apple does phones today and was not a smartphone. It’s also important to remember that was actually the first “Apple” phone since it was integrated into the iTunes experience (ie if your wanted iPod + cell phone). So if anything, a feature phone at the same price point as Apple a year prior selling like hotcakes only proves that it was clear iPhone was a big deal. > Lol. Saying $10 billion a year is not lucrative is crazy It is crazy but that’s less than 3% of 2023 revenue (in 2023 it’s still about 10% at 30B but down 27% from 2022). It’s a strategic product to build the Apple ecosystem but tactically it’s not where they make their money and sales and focus is. That’s why you see them still making Apple TV’s for a fraction of Mac revenue (watch + AirPods + tv + HomePod is $9B and the majority there is going to be watch and AirPods). Also if you actually follow the space you’d know the reason that Apple has a significant portion of the laptop market is because the market itself has stagnated and shrunk because smartphones and tablets have eaten it. In the same time period since 2007 that Mac revenue have taken to double Apple's overall revenues have 10x. I gave context from before in 2001 to show that Mac sales were stagnating and not at all a way that Apple would survive and once they knew how big iPod was they knew their future was not Mac. This by the way is straight from the horses mouth - Steve Jobs was one of presenters for interns that year. As for the strategic hypotheses, keep saying it’s conjecture all you want but please be aware I’ve had conversations with people who were within the company including some senior leaders. So while it may be wrong I suspect my conjectures may have a slightly larger chance of being correct than someone who remembers the iPhone as some “also ran” phone that no one could predict was going to be that big and forgetting all the lines at stores even it launched and so the constant non stop press it had for years even post launch. I’ll reiterate - if you have issues with my facts or conjecture, please actually point out specifically which facts are wrong or provide news articles or analysis contradicting what I’ve stated. Your recollection of how big a moment iPhone was in popular perception and in the tech industry is wrong or you weren’t paying proper attention or were in the wrong community that was on the periphery of everything happening.