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Life changing seems fair, I'm making changes to my life assuming that programming jobs are about to get cutthroat competitive and then disappear. We've got some

by roenxi 2y ago

Life changing seems fair, I'm making changes to my life assuming that programming jobs are about to get cutthroat competitive and then disappear. We've got something that is about as good as a junior developer in ChatGPT, much cheaper to employ for a month and it's competence is improving. It may not learn anything in a single session but at a higher level the rate of improvement of these models seems to be much faster than a human can manage. A human couldn't possibly learn as much as ChatGPT has in the time it has taken from founding OpenAI to now, and hardware improvement doesn't look like it'll cap out any time soon. We've got all these people in a state of delusion that somehow the job of a developer isn't glorified autocomplete of what someone else prompts them with. We can't be sure what the speed is that it will happen, but the writing is on the wall that AI will obsolete software development roles as they currently exist.

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 2y ago
If ChatGPT becomes as good as a junior, it may replace this position and we will be stuck with a decreasing number of seniors. But right now it's bad, makes a lot of mistakes and hallucinates APIs which is unacceptable. > the job of a developer [is] glorified autocomplete of what someone else prompts them with Clients don't know what they want, need, or what machines are capable of. Managers can't properly translate that either to the developers. My job is to understand all this and propose solutions, or say no if it's impossible. Will AI do that in the future? Do you remember when Cobol was supposed to replace programmers? Same thing for me. I have yet to see a fully generated solution from the specs to the deployment that takes responsibilities for its mistakes. But not yet another ReactJS frontend that anyone can do in a few days, something real that is useful to me and that you can sell as a real product. We currently have a large number of business guys (look it up on LinkedIn) who learn "prompting" because they believe it will make them gods in the future even if they don't know what a programming language is. And a lot of scammers who sell their prompts to those people. It feels like cryptocurrencies all over again. Last but not least, who will create the new APIs, technologies, and languages that we use? Will we be stuck with C++2x forever? ChatGPT will need a few additional revolutions to do this and to be independent on the open-source that already exists.
- namaria 2y ago
  Yeah I feel like people have been focusing on getting more, faster compute done. Both software and hardware side. But the hard question of 'what compute should be done' remains the important one.
dns_snek 2y ago
> We've got all these people in a state of delusion that somehow the job of a developer isn't glorified autocomplete of what someone else prompts them with. You could make the same oversimplification about any other knowledge or managerial job, up to and including C-suite executives. If this technology is coming and taking everyone's jobs, we're going to need incredibly strong social support structures like Universal basic income and radical redistribution of wealth from AI-owners to fund it. Do you have any ideas for tackling that?
osigurdson 2y ago
It might be more accurate to forget about the various current job categories. There is nothing that requires a technology to eliminate a certain existing job category(as if a job category is an immutable constant in the universe). Instead, it idea more likely to accelerate some types of activities and perhaps completely automate others.

by roenxi 2y ago

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 2y ago

If ChatGPT becomes as good as a junior, it may replace this position and we will be stuck with a decreasing number of seniors. But right now it's bad, makes a lot of mistakes and hallucinates APIs which is unacceptable. > the job of a developer [is] glorified autocomplete of what someone else prompts them with Clients don't know what they want, need, or what machines are capable of. Managers can't properly translate that either to the developers. My job is to understand all this and propose solutions, or say no if it's impossible. Will AI do that in the future? Do you remember when Cobol was supposed to replace programmers? Same thing for me. I have yet to see a fully generated solution from the specs to the deployment that takes responsibilities for its mistakes. But not yet another ReactJS frontend that anyone can do in a few days, something real that is useful to me and that you can sell as a real product. We currently have a large number of business guys (look it up on LinkedIn) who learn "prompting" because they believe it will make them gods in the future even if they don't know what a programming language is. And a lot of scammers who sell their prompts to those people. It feels like cryptocurrencies all over again. Last but not least, who will create the new APIs, technologies, and languages that we use? Will we be stuck with C++2x forever? ChatGPT will need a few additional revolutions to do this and to be independent on the open-source that already exists.

namaria 2y ago
Yeah I feel like people have been focusing on getting more, faster compute done. Both software and hardware side. But the hard question of 'what compute should be done' remains the important one.

dns_snek 2y ago

> We've got all these people in a state of delusion that somehow the job of a developer isn't glorified autocomplete of what someone else prompts them with. You could make the same oversimplification about any other knowledge or managerial job, up to and including C-suite executives. If this technology is coming and taking everyone's jobs, we're going to need incredibly strong social support structures like Universal basic income and radical redistribution of wealth from AI-owners to fund it. Do you have any ideas for tackling that?

osigurdson 2y ago

It might be more accurate to forget about the various current job categories. There is nothing that requires a technology to eliminate a certain existing job category(as if a job category is an immutable constant in the universe). Instead, it idea more likely to accelerate some types of activities and perhaps completely automate others.