4 ms·

> Perhaps in the urban setting but the majority of this country is not contained within cities. 83% of USA population live in urban areas, and that proportion

> Perhaps in the urban setting but the majority of this country is not contained within cities. 83% of USA population live in urban areas, and that proportion is still steadily growing. The same trends apply everywhere else in the world as well.

sseagull 2y ago
According to the 2020 US Census, about 80% live in an urban area. However, the definition is not exactly what people think of when you say “urban”. In 2020, the census lists 2,611 urban areas, including areas with a few thousand people. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural/2020-ua-facts.html https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/g... Shouldn’t be too hard to break this down with a more colloquial definition (say, areas over 500k or 750k people). I’m just not at a real computer :)
- Tool_of_Society 2y ago
  Calumet park is a village right next to Chicago with under 7000 people. Northfield village has under 6000 people and it's located within about 15 miles of Chicago. It wasn't until I was about 18 that I realized what I thought was Chicago were actually small towns/villages. There's a whole slew of small villages next to or "in" larger cities.
  - tptacek 2y ago
    Yes; the ordinary thing to compare is MSAs, which take this into account; Calumet Park (and Blue Island and Oak Lawn) are all part of the Chicago MSA.
akira2501 2y ago
> 83% of USA population live in urban areas If you combine dense urban areas with suburbs. It's about 33% in dense areas and 55% in suburban areas. Which actually doesn't improve the driving situation. > and that proportion is still steadily growing Which is why I specifically mentioned motorcycles. In areas of the world with even greater urban density than the USA there are a lot of these on the road. > The same trends apply everywhere else in the world as well. These trends are influenced by economic policy and socioeconomic mobility of the population, which are not similar everywhere, so expectations do need to be tailored to them. Editing to add, I actually think we'll see a new class of Drivers License, one that allows you to operate semi autonomous vehicles, and one that allows you to operate fully manual vehicles with a higher level of continuous written and on the road testing required to hold it. Which is a reasonable and non discriminatory solution to the problem.
- Vegenoid 2y ago
  > It's about 33% in dense areas and 55% in suburban areas. Which actually doesn't improve the driving situation. Are the suburbs not one of the easier places for autonomous vehicles? I’d think the lower traffic, larger roads, and reliance on cars to get around (due to low density and lack of transit) would make them the ideal place for self-driving cars to succeed.
  - vineyardmike 2y ago
    I don’t agree. The problem is suburbs have a lower cost-per-mile for trips than urban areas. It’s way more common to take a taxi in the city than the ‘burbs. Behavior for car ownership and expectations around waiting on rides is different. Self driving taxis are an easy transition in cities. In the suburbs, you need to sell people on expensive vehicles that cost a lot per trip (whether owned or hailed).
    - lazide 2y ago
      Ultimately I think it’s the same city/rural (really dense vs less dense) divide between a lot of things. In a suburban area, it could take 15 minutes for a taxi to get to you. In a rural area, 30 minutes to an hour. Inconvenient, especially since you could hop in the car you already have because of this situation, and probably already be where you want to go by the time they arrive. In an urban area (especially a super dense city like Manhattan, Tokyo, Mumbai, etc.), you probably spend more time figuring out if you need a taxi than actually getting one (literally seconds in most cases), and god help you if you’re trying to park. It will not go well.
    - throwaway2037 2y ago
      > suburbs have a lower cost-per-mile for trips than urban areas. Can you explain why?
      - vineyardmike 2y ago
        Two ways to get these numbers. Consider the total miles driven, divided by cost of the car. Or consider the cost of a taxi if you don’t own a car. I believe uber says their average cost per mile is roughly $1. So maybe $2 in urban areas. Waymo is $3 they said. I saw some statistic that said a new car costs $800 a month now. Since we’re talking about selling new manual vs self driving cars, we can ignore people buying used cars or particularly cheap cars. If you own a car in a city, you might drive to get groceries once a week and you may drive to a furniture store once every few years, and you take a couple trips to the airport every year. Cost city dwellers walk or take transit. Cities are dense, so the grocery store may be 2mi a way, so roughly 200mi a year, and then maybe 200mi a year for everything else. That’s 400mi a year (or 8mi/wk) with a car that statistically costs $800/mo in America - or 200/wk, so it actually costs $25/mi. In the suburbs, you may drive 20mi round trip to the grocery store. Then 20mi a day round trip to commute, then 5mi a trip to a restaurant… it adds up to a lot more miles total. I googled it and the average American drives 1200mi/mo. That’s $1.5/mi assuming the same average $800/mo cost of a new car. That means it’s cheaper for an urban dweller to take uber or Waymo instead of buying a new car. It’s almost but not quite cheaper for a suburbanite to take an uber but definitely not a Waymo.

sseagull 2y ago

According to the 2020 US Census, about 80% live in an urban area. However, the definition is not exactly what people think of when you say “urban”. In 2020, the census lists 2,611 urban areas, including areas with a few thousand people. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural/2020-ua-facts.html https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/g... Shouldn’t be too hard to break this down with a more colloquial definition (say, areas over 500k or 750k people). I’m just not at a real computer :)

Tool_of_Society 2y ago
Calumet park is a village right next to Chicago with under 7000 people. Northfield village has under 6000 people and it's located within about 15 miles of Chicago. It wasn't until I was about 18 that I realized what I thought was Chicago were actually small towns/villages. There's a whole slew of small villages next to or "in" larger cities.
- tptacek 2y ago
  Yes; the ordinary thing to compare is MSAs, which take this into account; Calumet Park (and Blue Island and Oak Lawn) are all part of the Chicago MSA.

akira2501 2y ago

> 83% of USA population live in urban areas If you combine dense urban areas with suburbs. It's about 33% in dense areas and 55% in suburban areas. Which actually doesn't improve the driving situation. > and that proportion is still steadily growing Which is why I specifically mentioned motorcycles. In areas of the world with even greater urban density than the USA there are a lot of these on the road. > The same trends apply everywhere else in the world as well. These trends are influenced by economic policy and socioeconomic mobility of the population, which are not similar everywhere, so expectations do need to be tailored to them. Editing to add, I actually think we'll see a new class of Drivers License, one that allows you to operate semi autonomous vehicles, and one that allows you to operate fully manual vehicles with a higher level of continuous written and on the road testing required to hold it. Which is a reasonable and non discriminatory solution to the problem.

Vegenoid 2y ago
> It's about 33% in dense areas and 55% in suburban areas. Which actually doesn't improve the driving situation. Are the suburbs not one of the easier places for autonomous vehicles? I’d think the lower traffic, larger roads, and reliance on cars to get around (due to low density and lack of transit) would make them the ideal place for self-driving cars to succeed.
- vineyardmike 2y ago
  I don’t agree. The problem is suburbs have a lower cost-per-mile for trips than urban areas. It’s way more common to take a taxi in the city than the ‘burbs. Behavior for car ownership and expectations around waiting on rides is different. Self driving taxis are an easy transition in cities. In the suburbs, you need to sell people on expensive vehicles that cost a lot per trip (whether owned or hailed).
  - lazide 2y ago
    Ultimately I think it’s the same city/rural (really dense vs less dense) divide between a lot of things. In a suburban area, it could take 15 minutes for a taxi to get to you. In a rural area, 30 minutes to an hour. Inconvenient, especially since you could hop in the car you already have because of this situation, and probably already be where you want to go by the time they arrive. In an urban area (especially a super dense city like Manhattan, Tokyo, Mumbai, etc.), you probably spend more time figuring out if you need a taxi than actually getting one (literally seconds in most cases), and god help you if you’re trying to park. It will not go well.
  - throwaway2037 2y ago
    > suburbs have a lower cost-per-mile for trips than urban areas. Can you explain why?
    - vineyardmike 2y ago
      Two ways to get these numbers. Consider the total miles driven, divided by cost of the car. Or consider the cost of a taxi if you don’t own a car. I believe uber says their average cost per mile is roughly $1. So maybe $2 in urban areas. Waymo is $3 they said. I saw some statistic that said a new car costs $800 a month now. Since we’re talking about selling new manual vs self driving cars, we can ignore people buying used cars or particularly cheap cars. If you own a car in a city, you might drive to get groceries once a week and you may drive to a furniture store once every few years, and you take a couple trips to the airport every year. Cost city dwellers walk or take transit. Cities are dense, so the grocery store may be 2mi a way, so roughly 200mi a year, and then maybe 200mi a year for everything else. That’s 400mi a year (or 8mi/wk) with a car that statistically costs $800/mo in America - or 200/wk, so it actually costs $25/mi. In the suburbs, you may drive 20mi round trip to the grocery store. Then 20mi a day round trip to commute, then 5mi a trip to a restaurant… it adds up to a lot more miles total. I googled it and the average American drives 1200mi/mo. That’s $1.5/mi assuming the same average $800/mo cost of a new car. That means it’s cheaper for an urban dweller to take uber or Waymo instead of buying a new car. It’s almost but not quite cheaper for a suburbanite to take an uber but definitely not a Waymo.