4 ms·

It feels suspiciously like it’s 1999 all over again.

by kergonath 2y ago

olderthandang 2y ago
No it doesn't. The economy then was actually good.
- deepfriedchokes 2y ago
  And housing was cheap and plentiful.
  - kergonath 2y ago
    Not really compared to 1974, though. And I am sure in 25 years time we will be complaining about how good we had it in 2024.
    - ThunderSizzle 2y ago
      If 2024 is the high point for a quarter century, we really are going to rock bottom as a world.
      - azinman2 2y ago
        Everything is relative.
      - kibwen 2y ago
        Don't think of this as the worst year of your life. Think of it as the best year of the rest of your life. :)
mbreese 2y ago
More like the AI winter from the late 80s.
- GaggiX 2y ago
  If by "AI winter" you mean a period where AI will continue to be used for semantic search, moderation, translation, captioning, TTS, STT, context-aware grammar checking, LLM, and audio/image classification, then yes, it would be an "AI winter" where AI is used everywhere.
  - mbreese 2y ago
    I meant specifically the time in the late 80s when investment in AI collapsed because it was overhyped and caused the downfall of Lisp Machines. The AI field itself kept moving forward, but investment and grant funding was cut to almost nothing for a long time. It took a long time for the field to get to where it is now, but the hype cycle has been going back and forth for decades in AI. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
    - GaggiX 2y ago
      I know well what the 80's AI winter is, the next one will have AI used everywhere if it's going to happen.
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
I totally agree, but I feel like some comments are making the mistake of stating "this bubble will pop, which means it was all smoke and mirrors to begin with". The dot com bubble popped, but it's not like the Internet technologies that were launched then (and companies like Amazon and Google) weren't hugely impactful on all of society since then. I think the AI bubble will pop, and while I think there is a lot of nonsense hype about AI I still think AI's societal impact will only grow.
- philistine 2y ago
  No one who is saying the bubble will pop thinks there is nothing behind it. That’s the definition of a bubble: you always need soap and water to make it, but soap and water are commodities, not this special unicorn that will change the world.
  - gitfan86 2y ago
    Beanie Babies, Tulips, NFTs, Web3 tokens were all obviously not going to change the world. The bubble was pure emotion and greed. All the cash inflows were speculation. Nvidia made 18 billion in profit last quarter, and expects to make 20 next quarter. That isn't speculation.
    - noirbot 2y ago
      I mean, how much money did the NFT companies and Tulip vendors make? Nvidia isn't OpenAI. They're selling products that the bubble is built on, not the bubble itself. How much money is OpenAI or Anthropic making? Because that's what people are thinking is speculative value. My position has always been that Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude are all pretty great at a cost of Free, and grow increasingly questionable past that. My work is already limiting how many ChatGPT users we can afford with their price increases, and I'm pretty sure OpenAI is still not profitable. If ChatGPT is $50/month as a breakeven cost for them, how many people/companies will buy it then? Most jobs I've been at won't pay for JetBrains licenses that cost way less per head. I feel like the best comparison is something like Uber or AirBnB where it's easy to be excited about it when all the services are crazy discounted by free VC money, but when they have to start turning a profit, they're back to actually competing with other tools.

It feels suspiciously like it’s 1999 all over again.

olderthandang 2y ago

No it doesn't. The economy then was actually good.

deepfriedchokes 2y ago
And housing was cheap and plentiful.
- kergonath 2y ago
  Not really compared to 1974, though. And I am sure in 25 years time we will be complaining about how good we had it in 2024.
  - ThunderSizzle 2y ago
    If 2024 is the high point for a quarter century, we really are going to rock bottom as a world.
    - azinman2 2y ago
      Everything is relative.
    - kibwen 2y ago
      Don't think of this as the worst year of your life. Think of it as the best year of the rest of your life. :)

mbreese 2y ago

More like the AI winter from the late 80s.

GaggiX 2y ago
If by "AI winter" you mean a period where AI will continue to be used for semantic search, moderation, translation, captioning, TTS, STT, context-aware grammar checking, LLM, and audio/image classification, then yes, it would be an "AI winter" where AI is used everywhere.
- mbreese 2y ago
  I meant specifically the time in the late 80s when investment in AI collapsed because it was overhyped and caused the downfall of Lisp Machines. The AI field itself kept moving forward, but investment and grant funding was cut to almost nothing for a long time. It took a long time for the field to get to where it is now, but the hype cycle has been going back and forth for decades in AI. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
  - GaggiX 2y ago
    I know well what the 80's AI winter is, the next one will have AI used everywhere if it's going to happen.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

I totally agree, but I feel like some comments are making the mistake of stating "this bubble will pop, which means it was all smoke and mirrors to begin with". The dot com bubble popped, but it's not like the Internet technologies that were launched then (and companies like Amazon and Google) weren't hugely impactful on all of society since then. I think the AI bubble will pop, and while I think there is a lot of nonsense hype about AI I still think AI's societal impact will only grow.

philistine 2y ago
No one who is saying the bubble will pop thinks there is nothing behind it. That’s the definition of a bubble: you always need soap and water to make it, but soap and water are commodities, not this special unicorn that will change the world.
- gitfan86 2y ago
  Beanie Babies, Tulips, NFTs, Web3 tokens were all obviously not going to change the world. The bubble was pure emotion and greed. All the cash inflows were speculation. Nvidia made 18 billion in profit last quarter, and expects to make 20 next quarter. That isn't speculation.
  - noirbot 2y ago
    I mean, how much money did the NFT companies and Tulip vendors make? Nvidia isn't OpenAI. They're selling products that the bubble is built on, not the bubble itself. How much money is OpenAI or Anthropic making? Because that's what people are thinking is speculative value. My position has always been that Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude are all pretty great at a cost of Free, and grow increasingly questionable past that. My work is already limiting how many ChatGPT users we can afford with their price increases, and I'm pretty sure OpenAI is still not profitable. If ChatGPT is $50/month as a breakeven cost for them, how many people/companies will buy it then? Most jobs I've been at won't pay for JetBrains licenses that cost way less per head. I feel like the best comparison is something like Uber or AirBnB where it's easy to be excited about it when all the services are crazy discounted by free VC money, but when they have to start turning a profit, they're back to actually competing with other tools.