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Total aside. In Neal Stephenson book Seveneves the technology of a future is in a few small ways described as weirdly un-advanced compared to the present. I w

Total aside. In Neal Stephenson book Seveneves the technology of a future is in a few small ways described as weirdly un-advanced compared to the present. I wouldn't describe it as the focus of the book but it still seemed particularly implausible to me but ... I hadn't really thought about Japan. I've never been but I've read that in a few ways technology (fax machines were (are?) still popular just a few years ago) is weirdly retrograde. That said for potential readers of Seveneves - as with all Stephenson's book it needed an editor to keep him in line. The second half was no where near as good as the first. There were plausibility problems with the technology used throughout the book. Also it was really a lot of fun and I have to admit that I enjoyed reading it.

davidsgk 2y ago
Bandwagoning onto this aside, I had really similar thoughts on both fronts. Are things really "retrograde" in Japan because they hang onto older technologies faster, or do they hang around longer because they make sense for their circumstances and needs? We don't say walkie-talkies on security guards are retrograde (not a perfect analogy, I know). And yep, I like to think of Seveneves as 3 books in a big trench coat where the first 2 are fantastic and I wholeheartedly recommend to anyone that likes some solid sci-fi.
- moandcompany 2y ago
  Agree with your question... "Older" is a relative measurement of time, but doesn't say anything about the marginal benefit or cost. An example of your question I see from Japan relates to payment systems. People often critique Japan for its cash-oriented systems and have also observed the difficulty that digital payment systems have had in gaining traction in Japan... an example for why digital payment systems have had poor adoption is the existence of earlier, well-adopted solutions that provide many of the same benefits in the majority of practical scenarios (i.e. stored value IC cards: Suica/Pasmo/etc.). In cases like this, the "newer" and supposedly better technology doesn't provide as large of a marginal benefit. They already solved much of the problem.
lxgr 2y ago
On the other hand, Japan is currently rolling out a digital ID scheme which is probably years ahead of the US. I don't think the fax machine or floppy disk anecdotes are by themselves evidence of any larger trend – most countries I'm familiar with have both systems firmly stuck in the past as well as those that have kept up with time. A good part of the "stuck in the past" technologies are probably nothing much other than "first-mover disadvantage" (where organizations just stick with the first iteration/solution to a given problem and grow so used to that specific implementation that it's never quite worth it to adopt what would now be state of the art).

davidsgk 2y ago

Bandwagoning onto this aside, I had really similar thoughts on both fronts. Are things really "retrograde" in Japan because they hang onto older technologies faster, or do they hang around longer because they make sense for their circumstances and needs? We don't say walkie-talkies on security guards are retrograde (not a perfect analogy, I know). And yep, I like to think of Seveneves as 3 books in a big trench coat where the first 2 are fantastic and I wholeheartedly recommend to anyone that likes some solid sci-fi.

moandcompany 2y ago
Agree with your question... "Older" is a relative measurement of time, but doesn't say anything about the marginal benefit or cost. An example of your question I see from Japan relates to payment systems. People often critique Japan for its cash-oriented systems and have also observed the difficulty that digital payment systems have had in gaining traction in Japan... an example for why digital payment systems have had poor adoption is the existence of earlier, well-adopted solutions that provide many of the same benefits in the majority of practical scenarios (i.e. stored value IC cards: Suica/Pasmo/etc.). In cases like this, the "newer" and supposedly better technology doesn't provide as large of a marginal benefit. They already solved much of the problem.

lxgr 2y ago

On the other hand, Japan is currently rolling out a digital ID scheme which is probably years ahead of the US. I don't think the fax machine or floppy disk anecdotes are by themselves evidence of any larger trend – most countries I'm familiar with have both systems firmly stuck in the past as well as those that have kept up with time. A good part of the "stuck in the past" technologies are probably nothing much other than "first-mover disadvantage" (where organizations just stick with the first iteration/solution to a given problem and grow so used to that specific implementation that it's never quite worth it to adopt what would now be state of the art).