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“Advanced Clean Cars II requirement that 35% of new vehicle sales be zero-emission in 2026” Is California close to meeting this goal?

georgeburdell 2y ago
25.7% zero emissions vehicles in Q2 [1]. Needs about 20% growth each of the next 2 years to meet that target. At least in my corner of the Bay Area, the only people buying new gas-only vehicles are the ones who can’t afford the extra hybrid cost upfront. EVs are popular with the older folks who can use smaller vehicles. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/08/06/california-just-notched-one-of-its-best-quarters-ever-for-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales/#:~:text=SACRAMENTO%2520%E2%80%94%2520In%2520the%2520second%2520quarter,second%2520highest%2520ever%2520market%2520share https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/08/06/california-just-notched-on....
enragedcacti 2y ago
Q2 2024 they were at 25.7% which is an increase but a much slower increase than previous years. The EV market is in a slump everywhere in the US so how long that lasts is probably the determining factor. I'm not sure what they punishment is if automakers miss, trying to figure that out now. edit: If they are going to miss, they can: 1) sell ZEVs or PHEVs at a 25% discount to "Clean Mobility" grant recipient organizations for a bonus score of 0.5 and 0.4 vehicles respectively. 2) trade in banked ZEV sales from 2020-2022 3) trade sales with other mfgs up to 2030 4) just shift allotment of EVs to California as the restriction only applies to vehicles destined for California (and other states that opt in). Worst case for mfgs is that people who really want an ICE car can buy from them in an adjacent state. 5) lots of other credit math that seemed complicated and niche The max penalty if none of that is possible is $5000 per noncompliant vehicle sold over the limit. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022/accii/2acciifro1962.4.pdf https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022...

georgeburdell 2y ago

25.7% zero emissions vehicles in Q2 [1]. Needs about 20% growth each of the next 2 years to meet that target. At least in my corner of the Bay Area, the only people buying new gas-only vehicles are the ones who can’t afford the extra hybrid cost upfront. EVs are popular with the older folks who can use smaller vehicles. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/08/06/california-just-notched-one-of-its-best-quarters-ever-for-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales/#:~:text=SACRAMENTO%2520%E2%80%94%2520In%2520the%2520second%2520quarter,second%2520highest%2520ever%2520market%2520share https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/08/06/california-just-notched-on....

enragedcacti 2y ago

Q2 2024 they were at 25.7% which is an increase but a much slower increase than previous years. The EV market is in a slump everywhere in the US so how long that lasts is probably the determining factor. I'm not sure what they punishment is if automakers miss, trying to figure that out now. edit: If they are going to miss, they can: 1) sell ZEVs or PHEVs at a 25% discount to "Clean Mobility" grant recipient organizations for a bonus score of 0.5 and 0.4 vehicles respectively. 2) trade in banked ZEV sales from 2020-2022 3) trade sales with other mfgs up to 2030 4) just shift allotment of EVs to California as the restriction only applies to vehicles destined for California (and other states that opt in). Worst case for mfgs is that people who really want an ICE car can buy from them in an adjacent state. 5) lots of other credit math that seemed complicated and niche The max penalty if none of that is possible is $5000 per noncompliant vehicle sold over the limit. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022/accii/2acciifro1962.4.pdf https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022...