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Bay Watch: Northern California is an energy catastrophe waiting to happen

nullc 2y ago
Paid article that cuts out before it even states its thesis. I don't understand the value of putting posts like this on HN. Presumably the paying subs have seen it, for everyone else it says close to nothing and access to the rest appears to cost $300.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Thesis from the free version of the article: "Through a combination of regulatory browbeating, relentless taxation, and outright lawfare, California has successfully transformed itself from a global energy superpower to a flaccid energy vassal, highly dependent on foreign and domestic neighbors to keep the lights on and motor vehicles moving" [0] [0] - https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/bay-watch?selection=25255d40-163f-4a12-be5b-020b65950b80&utm_campaign=post-share-selection&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/bay-watch?selection...
  - Gibbon1 2y ago
    Feels like standard neoliberal magical thinking. The magic of the free market can solve any problem including oil and gas fields slowly being exhausted. Course California through regulatory browbeating, taxation, and lawfare is slowly but relentlessly replacing imported energy sources with renewable ones.
  - nullc 2y ago
    Derp. Right you are!
alephnerd 2y ago
Bad article. The only reason Chevron's in San Ramon is because the older generation of execs and mid-managers used to attend the UC Davis B-School (both undergrad and grad), and helped setup the campus in San Ramon (right by the Costco). Wirth doesn't have the same attachment to San Ramon, so it makes sense for Chevron to move to the actual Energy Market hub (Houston). San Ramon also stopped giving sweetheart deals to Chevron now that it's economic base is much more diverse from 20-30 years ago, because the city has become a Palo Alto 2.0 and can sustain itself of property taxes, and Chevron began the move to Houston back in 2018. And finally, Chevron is a massive player in the renewables space - with Chevron Ventures taking plenty of strategic bets in the battery tech, solar, and charging industries.
- addicted 2y ago
  Correct. And the irony is that for all the dick waving in the article (maybe it makes a point in the paid part) Texas’s grid has suffered multiple energy failures over the past decade while Northern California has been pretty stable. I work with people in Houston and we literally chalk in a good week+ of additional downtime simply because their power is likely gonna be out for that long in a year.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    On the other hand, power is considerably cheaper in Texas. The argument that reliability is so important it trumps other considerations is not based on any market test. I remember AT&T using a similar argument to try to justify their monopoly.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Power Costs didn't play a role in Chevron's move as I pointed out in my comment. It's not like they're refining oil in Bishop Ranch. If they did, ATT, Bank of America, and Toyota corporate right next door would be pissed. San Ramon is the Bay Area's Teaneck NJ, Yorktown Heights NY, or Brookline MA.
  - boxed 2y ago
    This article seems like it's about gasoline though, not grid electricity?
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      San Ramon is the corporate office. There is no industrial activity in San Ramon. Chevron just lost sweetheart tax deals because San Ramon is now Palo Alto level expensive, so the city is self sustaining off of property taxes now, and the new generation of execs at Chevron don't have the same attachment to the Bay Area like those in the Watson era. If the Tri-Valley became it's own county, it would have a GDP per Capita of around $250-300k - a big change from 30-40 years ago when it was cowtown like Tracy is today.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
happosai 2y ago
Article talking about fossil fuels without mentioning climate change, huge red flag. I'm sure the paid part would turn out to be some kind of partisan hot take excuse on why we shouldn't do things to slow down climate change. At least not in this particular case. Or not as drastically as others suggest. Or not until China. Etc...
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
dave333 2y ago
If there's a gas shortage we just go back to work from home as in Covid. That's what the long term plan should be anyway.

Paid article that cuts out before it even states its thesis. I don't understand the value of putting posts like this on HN. Presumably the paying subs have seen it, for everyone else it says close to nothing and access to the rest appears to cost $300.

alephnerd 2y ago
Thesis from the free version of the article: "Through a combination of regulatory browbeating, relentless taxation, and outright lawfare, California has successfully transformed itself from a global energy superpower to a flaccid energy vassal, highly dependent on foreign and domestic neighbors to keep the lights on and motor vehicles moving" [0] [0] - https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/bay-watch?selection=25255d40-163f-4a12-be5b-020b65950b80&utm_campaign=post-share-selection&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/bay-watch?selection...
- Gibbon1 2y ago
  Feels like standard neoliberal magical thinking. The magic of the free market can solve any problem including oil and gas fields slowly being exhausted. Course California through regulatory browbeating, taxation, and lawfare is slowly but relentlessly replacing imported energy sources with renewable ones.
- nullc 2y ago
  Derp. Right you are!

alephnerd 2y ago

Bad article. The only reason Chevron's in San Ramon is because the older generation of execs and mid-managers used to attend the UC Davis B-School (both undergrad and grad), and helped setup the campus in San Ramon (right by the Costco). Wirth doesn't have the same attachment to San Ramon, so it makes sense for Chevron to move to the actual Energy Market hub (Houston). San Ramon also stopped giving sweetheart deals to Chevron now that it's economic base is much more diverse from 20-30 years ago, because the city has become a Palo Alto 2.0 and can sustain itself of property taxes, and Chevron began the move to Houston back in 2018. And finally, Chevron is a massive player in the renewables space - with Chevron Ventures taking plenty of strategic bets in the battery tech, solar, and charging industries.

addicted 2y ago
Correct. And the irony is that for all the dick waving in the article (maybe it makes a point in the paid part) Texas’s grid has suffered multiple energy failures over the past decade while Northern California has been pretty stable. I work with people in Houston and we literally chalk in a good week+ of additional downtime simply because their power is likely gonna be out for that long in a year.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  On the other hand, power is considerably cheaper in Texas. The argument that reliability is so important it trumps other considerations is not based on any market test. I remember AT&T using a similar argument to try to justify their monopoly.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Power Costs didn't play a role in Chevron's move as I pointed out in my comment. It's not like they're refining oil in Bishop Ranch. If they did, ATT, Bank of America, and Toyota corporate right next door would be pissed. San Ramon is the Bay Area's Teaneck NJ, Yorktown Heights NY, or Brookline MA.
- boxed 2y ago
  This article seems like it's about gasoline though, not grid electricity?
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    San Ramon is the corporate office. There is no industrial activity in San Ramon. Chevron just lost sweetheart tax deals because San Ramon is now Palo Alto level expensive, so the city is self sustaining off of property taxes now, and the new generation of execs at Chevron don't have the same attachment to the Bay Area like those in the Watson era. If the Tri-Valley became it's own county, it would have a GDP per Capita of around $250-300k - a big change from 30-40 years ago when it was cowtown like Tracy is today.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

happosai 2y ago

Article talking about fossil fuels without mentioning climate change, huge red flag. I'm sure the paid part would turn out to be some kind of partisan hot take excuse on why we shouldn't do things to slow down climate change. At least not in this particular case. Or not as drastically as others suggest. Or not until China. Etc...

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

dave333 2y ago

If there's a gas shortage we just go back to work from home as in Covid. That's what the long term plan should be anyway.