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> As of 2022, the total combined energy capacity of electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold in Europe reached approximately 690 GWh, and grows very quickly. Lol,

> As of 2022, the total combined energy capacity of electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold in Europe reached approximately 690 GWh, and grows very quickly. Lol, so for context, a single French person is using 2.5GWh/year. One single inhabitant. France is consuming 1.2TWh of electricity per DAY in winter. So the whole electric vehicle fleet in the whole Europe is worth half a day (being generous) of electricity just in France during the time which is the tightest in electricity. That's so low it's not even worth mentioning. And that's the whole Europe compared to a single country, that's not going to make it. > Note: dams are a renewable source. There's also pretty much no new place where you can build one in a developped country as it's an old technology. > You wrote that "solar and wind" can drop "to 5% capacity for weeks at a time", and I ask for the source of this Solar produces most of it's production during 6 months and only gives 3% of the yearly production on each month of January and February. That's the two months where the countries are using the most electricity for context and need the most production. For wind, that happens regularly, even right now as we speak, Germany has a 7% capacity which isn't far. > deployed on whole continent. Guess what? The wind production is synchronized right now, you can check it. That's another kind of strange of being shown the reality right now and denying it. https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_graph17.png https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_grap... Here is the statistics, when it blows in Germany, it blows in France and when there's no wind in France, there's wind in Germany either. > This is highly debatable as the real total cost of the nuclear fleet is disputed. Remember: EDF's debt now surpasses 50 billion €... No it's not disputed, there's extensive reports in France on that subject as it's a common talking point. I don't know any study about the external costs of renewables though so 100 billion for around 10% of the production is the best scenario. And calling it a failure seems pretty fair even with the most generous figures possible. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding anyway, if it had worked, the nuclear program wouldn't have been brought back from the dead. France already tried ambitious renewable investments to replace the nuclear fleet during a whole decade and it failed. What the country got instead was mediocre results for the price paid and an increased dependency on gas which proved to be a huge issue with the Russian war. Those who don't learn from the past are condemn to repeat it.

natmaka 2y ago
> a single French person is using 2.5GWh/year Source? Fact: France generates ~8kWh/inhabitant/year and is a net electricity exporter. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-generation?tab=chart&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-ge... "Lol"?! > There's also pretty much no new place where you can build one in a developped country Not true in some parts of Europe (North, esp Scandinavia, Balkans...) https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2024/02/15/10971774/eu-may-have-wide-hydropower-potential-for-power-balancing/ https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2024/02/15/10971... Moreover, esp on the generation side, new approaches (small hydro) is ramping up https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffopperman/2018/08/10/the-unexpectedly-large-impacts-of-small-hydropower/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffopperman/2018/08/10/the-une... > The wind production is synchronized right now Your document (Jancovici) analyzes current production of the very incomplete fleets of neighboring nations while the pertinent studies take into account wind regimes of geographic zones where wind turbines can be deployed and which are far appart. Conclusions of adequate scientific (J.-M. Jancovici expertise isn't about wind regimes) in reviewed and published studies (J.-M. Jancovici isn't) are quite different (please find some pointers in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41397343 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41397343 ) The last part of your answer is mostly devoid of sources, and I don't want to write about mere opinions. > if it had worked, the nuclear program wouldn't have been brought back from the dead The French nuclear program was never killed. When was it killed, according to you, by who and how? Facts: EPR programme, EPR ordered and exported, Grand Carénage, R&D budgets ( https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/politiques-publiques/energie-recherche-developpement https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/politiques-publiques/energie-re... )... > France already tried ambitious renewable investments to replace the nuclear fleet during a whole decade and it failed Those industrial renewables are very new tech, they evolve very quickly, France missed its own objectives on renewables (sole nation in the UE to do so), France isn't rich anymore (during its nuclearization it benefited from the '30 Glorieuses' and from an intense and expensive R&D at home and in the US)... https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-plan https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-pl... Even in such a context the result is very promising and there is no plan to dump renewables: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewables-nuclear-line?time=2003..latest&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa... > mediocre results for the price paid https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/how-much-money-are-european-consumers-saving-thanks-to-renewables#abstract https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanvi... Determining which project delivers a 'mediocre result' is easy.

natmaka 2y ago

> a single French person is using 2.5GWh/year Source? Fact: France generates ~8kWh/inhabitant/year and is a net electricity exporter. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-generation?tab=chart&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-ge... "Lol"?! > There's also pretty much no new place where you can build one in a developped country Not true in some parts of Europe (North, esp Scandinavia, Balkans...) https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2024/02/15/10971774/eu-may-have-wide-hydropower-potential-for-power-balancing/ https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2024/02/15/10971... Moreover, esp on the generation side, new approaches (small hydro) is ramping up https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffopperman/2018/08/10/the-unexpectedly-large-impacts-of-small-hydropower/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffopperman/2018/08/10/the-une... > The wind production is synchronized right now Your document (Jancovici) analyzes current production of the very incomplete fleets of neighboring nations while the pertinent studies take into account wind regimes of geographic zones where wind turbines can be deployed and which are far appart. Conclusions of adequate scientific (J.-M. Jancovici expertise isn't about wind regimes) in reviewed and published studies (J.-M. Jancovici isn't) are quite different (please find some pointers in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41397343 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41397343 ) The last part of your answer is mostly devoid of sources, and I don't want to write about mere opinions. > if it had worked, the nuclear program wouldn't have been brought back from the dead The French nuclear program was never killed. When was it killed, according to you, by who and how? Facts: EPR programme, EPR ordered and exported, Grand Carénage, R&D budgets ( https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/politiques-publiques/energie-recherche-developpement https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/politiques-publiques/energie-re... )... > France already tried ambitious renewable investments to replace the nuclear fleet during a whole decade and it failed Those industrial renewables are very new tech, they evolve very quickly, France missed its own objectives on renewables (sole nation in the UE to do so), France isn't rich anymore (during its nuclearization it benefited from the '30 Glorieuses' and from an intense and expensive R&D at home and in the US)... https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-plan https://sites.google.com/view/electricitedefrance/messmer-pl... Even in such a context the result is very promising and there is no plan to dump renewables: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewables-nuclear-line?time=2003..latest&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa... > mediocre results for the price paid https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/how-much-money-are-european-consumers-saving-thanks-to-renewables#abstract https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanvi... Determining which project delivers a 'mediocre result' is easy.