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You wrote that "solar and wind" can drop "to 5% capacity for weeks at a time", and I ask for the source of this, in order to check that if, contrary to all scie

You wrote that "solar and wind" can drop "to 5% capacity for weeks at a time", and I ask for the source of this, in order to check that if, contrary to all scientific studies, it is true for a mix (wind, solar...) deployed on whole continent. Guess what? It isn't! Check "How synchronous is wind energy production among European countries?" (Monforti, Gaetani, Vignati). This is also true in China (check Liu, Xiao Wang, Dai, Qi "Analysis on the hourly spatiotemporal complementarities between China's solar and wind energy resources spreading in a wide area") and America ("Is it always windy somewhere? Occurrence of low-wind-power events over large areas" (Handschy, Rose, Apt).) > Daunkelflaute It's "Dunkelflaute" (only one 'a') "a single event usually lasts up to 24 hours" and "more than two days over most of Europe happen about every five years" (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute ), here is for your "weeks at a time". Moreover regions outside North of Europe are way less impacted. > are used for very low scale grid management And what exactly forbids to manage all local grids this way? This is more and more true, as being able to isolate a local grid is useful. > The only large scale tech to store electricity are dams As of 2022, the total combined energy capacity of electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold in Europe reached approximately 690 GWh, and grows very quickly. Note: dams are a renewable source. > The only exisitng gas plant stil used before 2010 It is about fossil fuel, and factually the French nuclear fleet always used some: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?Metric=Share+of+total+generation&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&tab=chart&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?Metric=Share+of+... > hundred billions on new renewables alone With a clearly promising result: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewables-nuclear-line?time=2002..latest&country=~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-fossil-renewa... > (roughly half of the total cost of the nuclear grid) This is highly debatable as the real total cost of the nuclear fleet is disputed. Remember: EDF's debt now surpasses 50 billion €... > It's true that the results look even worse than the EPR though Source? Reality: the French EPR should have started around 2012 and didn't (right now) did so, while https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/how-much-money-are-european-consumers-saving-thanks-to-renewables#abstract https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j...

realusername 2y ago
> As of 2022, the total combined energy capacity of electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold in Europe reached approximately 690 GWh, and grows very quickly. Lol, so for context, a single French person is using 2.5GWh/year. One single inhabitant. France is consuming 1.2TWh of electricity per DAY in winter. So the whole electric vehicle fleet in the whole Europe is worth half a day (being generous) of electricity just in France during the time which is the tightest in electricity. That's so low it's not even worth mentioning. And that's the whole Europe compared to a single country, that's not going to make it. > Note: dams are a renewable source. There's also pretty much no new place where you can build one in a developped country as it's an old technology. > You wrote that "solar and wind" can drop "to 5% capacity for weeks at a time", and I ask for the source of this Solar produces most of it's production during 6 months and only gives 3% of the yearly production on each month of January and February. That's the two months where the countries are using the most electricity for context and need the most production. For wind, that happens regularly, even right now as we speak, Germany has a 7% capacity which isn't far. > deployed on whole continent. Guess what? The wind production is synchronized right now, you can check it. That's another kind of strange of being shown the reality right now and denying it. https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_graph17.png https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_grap... Here is the statistics, when it blows in Germany, it blows in France and when there's no wind in France, there's wind in Germany either. > This is highly debatable as the real total cost of the nuclear fleet is disputed. Remember: EDF's debt now surpasses 50 billion €... No it's not disputed, there's extensive reports in France on that subject as it's a common talking point. I don't know any study about the external costs of renewables though so 100 billion for around 10% of the production is the best scenario. And calling it a failure seems pretty fair even with the most generous figures possible. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding anyway, if it had worked, the nuclear program wouldn't have been brought back from the dead. France already tried ambitious renewable investments to replace the nuclear fleet during a whole decade and it failed. What the country got instead was mediocre results for the price paid and an increased dependency on gas which proved to be a huge issue with the Russian war. Those who don't learn from the past are condemn to repeat it.
- natmaka 2y ago

realusername 2y ago

> As of 2022, the total combined energy capacity of electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold in Europe reached approximately 690 GWh, and grows very quickly. Lol, so for context, a single French person is using 2.5GWh/year. One single inhabitant. France is consuming 1.2TWh of electricity per DAY in winter. So the whole electric vehicle fleet in the whole Europe is worth half a day (being generous) of electricity just in France during the time which is the tightest in electricity. That's so low it's not even worth mentioning. And that's the whole Europe compared to a single country, that's not going to make it. > Note: dams are a renewable source. There's also pretty much no new place where you can build one in a developped country as it's an old technology. > You wrote that "solar and wind" can drop "to 5% capacity for weeks at a time", and I ask for the source of this Solar produces most of it's production during 6 months and only gives 3% of the yearly production on each month of January and February. That's the two months where the countries are using the most electricity for context and need the most production. For wind, that happens regularly, even right now as we speak, Germany has a 7% capacity which isn't far. > deployed on whole continent. Guess what? The wind production is synchronized right now, you can check it. That's another kind of strange of being shown the reality right now and denying it. https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_graph17.png https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/eolien_grap... Here is the statistics, when it blows in Germany, it blows in France and when there's no wind in France, there's wind in Germany either. > This is highly debatable as the real total cost of the nuclear fleet is disputed. Remember: EDF's debt now surpasses 50 billion €... No it's not disputed, there's extensive reports in France on that subject as it's a common talking point. I don't know any study about the external costs of renewables though so 100 billion for around 10% of the production is the best scenario. And calling it a failure seems pretty fair even with the most generous figures possible. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding anyway, if it had worked, the nuclear program wouldn't have been brought back from the dead. France already tried ambitious renewable investments to replace the nuclear fleet during a whole decade and it failed. What the country got instead was mediocre results for the price paid and an increased dependency on gas which proved to be a huge issue with the Russian war. Those who don't learn from the past are condemn to repeat it.

natmaka 2y ago