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At some point, the glass, frame and wiring will dominate the cost of solar panels, and when we hit that point, the price will likely stop falling. I don't know

At some point, the glass, frame and wiring will dominate the cost of solar panels, and when we hit that point, the price will likely stop falling. I don't know if we'll ever get as low as $4 with our current approach.

kragen 2y ago
that is already the case; solar panels have been cheaper than window glass per square meter for years now. that's why the article says: > Is there a floor for these costs? > > Solar manufacturers are investing hundreds of billions in expanded capacity in an all out war for market share against a background of panel price drops of 15-25% per year. There is an extreme economic forcing function towards rapid improvement and ultimately convergence with the Platonically ideal solar panel - some 20 um thick layer of silicon supported by a 100 um thick layer of plastic rolled off a spool - or some other tech that's thinner and cheaper than paper.—Casey Handmer > Thinner and cheaper than paper. Think about that! i suspect that at some point people are going to be mounting bare (passivated) silicon dies on string and putting up chicken wire over them to keep the hailstones off, or something like that. think about how plants support their leaves
- tuatoru 2y ago
  Perovskite films on microgrooved plastic film, offset printed roll to roll and rolled out mounted vertically like windbreak netting in orchards. For example: https://eyouagro.com/blog/citrus-fruits-wind-protection-netting/ https://eyouagro.com/blog/citrus-fruits-wind-protection-nett... Reduces land costs because the land is already being used for crops of one sort or another. Agrivoltaics ftw.
  - kragen 2y ago
    that's fantastic! yeah, you don't want to shade your wheat and corn with solar panels, but oranges and lettuce will benefit from it it's going to be pretty hard to dethrone silicon after the amount of supply-chain and process optimization that's gone into lowering its costs, but in some sense things like what you're describing seem to make it inevitable at some point

kragen 2y ago

that is already the case; solar panels have been cheaper than window glass per square meter for years now. that's why the article says: > Is there a floor for these costs? > > Solar manufacturers are investing hundreds of billions in expanded capacity in an all out war for market share against a background of panel price drops of 15-25% per year. There is an extreme economic forcing function towards rapid improvement and ultimately convergence with the Platonically ideal solar panel - some 20 um thick layer of silicon supported by a 100 um thick layer of plastic rolled off a spool - or some other tech that's thinner and cheaper than paper.—Casey Handmer > Thinner and cheaper than paper. Think about that! i suspect that at some point people are going to be mounting bare (passivated) silicon dies on string and putting up chicken wire over them to keep the hailstones off, or something like that. think about how plants support their leaves

tuatoru 2y ago
Perovskite films on microgrooved plastic film, offset printed roll to roll and rolled out mounted vertically like windbreak netting in orchards. For example: https://eyouagro.com/blog/citrus-fruits-wind-protection-netting/ https://eyouagro.com/blog/citrus-fruits-wind-protection-nett... Reduces land costs because the land is already being used for crops of one sort or another. Agrivoltaics ftw.
- kragen 2y ago
  that's fantastic! yeah, you don't want to shade your wheat and corn with solar panels, but oranges and lettuce will benefit from it it's going to be pretty hard to dethrone silicon after the amount of supply-chain and process optimization that's gone into lowering its costs, but in some sense things like what you're describing seem to make it inevitable at some point