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> I also remember around 1975 getting all excited about solar and getting told that costs were dropping so fast that in five years solar would be cheaper than p

> I also remember around 1975 getting all excited about solar and getting told that costs were dropping so fast that in five years solar would be cheaper than power produced from coal or natural gas My understanding is commercial solar (as opposed to household solar) is cheaper than natural gas so that prediction is at least partly true

epoxia 2y ago
Not really, the over-cited LCOE of solar/wind does not account for the cost of (its increased need of) battery storage. As time of use does not align with the time of generation. Also, battery storage has its own ongoing costs with battery degradation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlnBNVCfBQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlnBNVCfBQ
- Veedrac 2y ago
  2019 was half a decade ago. You can tell solar+storage is cheaper than anything else except conditionally wind at least in the US because people have stopped building new generation capacity for anything else.
  - spywaregorilla 2y ago
    Well, that claim isn't true. Solar + Storage is cheaper than a gas peaker plant, but it is not cost competitive with a base load gas plant.
  - epoxia 2y ago
    True, I didn't realize how much panel costs have declined since then[0]. Also tax incentives for renewables have doubled as well (rightfully so)[1]. [0] https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/chinas-solar-production-costs-fall-by-42-in-last-year/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/chinas-solar-producti... [1] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/ https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/
- Veserv 2y ago
  What is the point of citing theoretical values like LCOE when we have direct practical information on predicted profitability? Energy producers in Texas are are adding 8x as much solar capacity (24 GW) as natural gas capacity (3 GW) [1] over 2024-2025. Do you believe that the entire Texas power plant industry is deliberately choosing less profitable and capital inefficient generation? That could be the case, they may optimistically forecasted or undercounted potential future problems, but at this point in time their calculations seem to show that solar is tremendously more cost efficient to deploy over its expected lifetime. It could also be the case that there are just subsidies for renewable energy in Texas that tip the balance. But at the scales we are now discussing, 10-20% of total energy generating capacity, the total value of those subsidies would need to be quite tremendous (in the G$ to 10 G$ per year range). [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61783#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20installed%20solar%20capacity,capacity%20during%20the%20same%20period https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61783#:~:tex....
  - verisimi 2y ago
    Is it a free market though? Or are solar, wind, etc being funded by the government? Or is gas being taxed in a way that solar is not (yet)?
    - bee_rider 2y ago
      There isn’t a free market for energy really, it is a global marketplace and the government of every major player puts their thumb on the scale. Governments are investing in solar because they want to be ahead in the renewable economy, where energy literally just falls from the sky. Is that a subsidy? I guess. It is also a good strategic move. Are petrochemicals taxed or subsidized? I have no idea, it is a big tangled web. What are the costs of staying plausibly friendly with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members, who pays that bill? I’m not going to try and defend either way, but I don’t believe anybody who says they have an answer. If they did manage to analyze the entire global economy somehow (where to even start) I don’t think they’d post the answer here.
      - 2y ago

epoxia 2y ago

Not really, the over-cited LCOE of solar/wind does not account for the cost of (its increased need of) battery storage. As time of use does not align with the time of generation. Also, battery storage has its own ongoing costs with battery degradation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlnBNVCfBQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlnBNVCfBQ

Veedrac 2y ago
2019 was half a decade ago. You can tell solar+storage is cheaper than anything else except conditionally wind at least in the US because people have stopped building new generation capacity for anything else.
- spywaregorilla 2y ago
  Well, that claim isn't true. Solar + Storage is cheaper than a gas peaker plant, but it is not cost competitive with a base load gas plant.
- epoxia 2y ago
  True, I didn't realize how much panel costs have declined since then[0]. Also tax incentives for renewables have doubled as well (rightfully so)[1]. [0] https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/chinas-solar-production-costs-fall-by-42-in-last-year/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/chinas-solar-producti... [1] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/ https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/
Veserv 2y ago
What is the point of citing theoretical values like LCOE when we have direct practical information on predicted profitability? Energy producers in Texas are are adding 8x as much solar capacity (24 GW) as natural gas capacity (3 GW) [1] over 2024-2025. Do you believe that the entire Texas power plant industry is deliberately choosing less profitable and capital inefficient generation? That could be the case, they may optimistically forecasted or undercounted potential future problems, but at this point in time their calculations seem to show that solar is tremendously more cost efficient to deploy over its expected lifetime. It could also be the case that there are just subsidies for renewable energy in Texas that tip the balance. But at the scales we are now discussing, 10-20% of total energy generating capacity, the total value of those subsidies would need to be quite tremendous (in the G$ to 10 G$ per year range). [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61783#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20installed%20solar%20capacity,capacity%20during%20the%20same%20period https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61783#:~:tex....
- verisimi 2y ago
  Is it a free market though? Or are solar, wind, etc being funded by the government? Or is gas being taxed in a way that solar is not (yet)?
  - bee_rider 2y ago
    There isn’t a free market for energy really, it is a global marketplace and the government of every major player puts their thumb on the scale. Governments are investing in solar because they want to be ahead in the renewable economy, where energy literally just falls from the sky. Is that a subsidy? I guess. It is also a good strategic move. Are petrochemicals taxed or subsidized? I have no idea, it is a big tangled web. What are the costs of staying plausibly friendly with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members, who pays that bill? I’m not going to try and defend either way, but I don’t believe anybody who says they have an answer. If they did manage to analyze the entire global economy somehow (where to even start) I don’t think they’d post the answer here.
    - 2y ago