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That seems to be saying it is extremely likely that the only other person in my zip code that shares my birthdate is opposite gender
by dwighttk 2y ago
That seems to be saying it is extremely likely that the only other person in my zip code that shares my birthdate is opposite gender
- aftbit 2y agoThat sounds like a pitch for one of those "singles near you" apps. Find hot women in your area who share your birthdate!
- alwa 2y agoOnly 50% of the time, but that’s 50% better of a guess than you’d make without knowing gender. ZIP codes contain maybe 40K residents [0] (many contain fewer) and there have been around 25K days in the last 70 years. Sure births are not evenly distributed, but still... [0] https://www.unitedstateszipcodes.org/images/comparison-of-population-estimates.png https://www.unitedstateszipcodes.org/images/comparison-of-po...
- paulmd 2y agostatistically, 50% chance, innit?
- dwighttk 2y agoOP seems to claim 13% same / 87% opposite
- jsnell 2y agoI don't think you can make that conclusion. I think you're making the assumption that all three data points are needed for all 87%. But obviously some people can be uniquely identified based on just {zip, date or birth}, such that gender isn't necessary. So the distribution could e.g. be 8% same, 8% opposite, 5% both, 79% neither, and explain the original numbers without triggering the paradox.
- dwighttk 2y agoYeah I was off, but by their numbers 87% of the time, there are no others on my birthdate or there is one other and opposite gender. 13% of the time is 1 same gender or more of either or both.