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Look at Germany the next years. We gave up coal, nuclear and now gas. Have the highest prices for energy in the world and our industry is leaving. If we would

Look at Germany the next years. We gave up coal, nuclear and now gas. Have the highest prices for energy in the world and our industry is leaving. If we would have more energy we would get much richer and not more poor like right now.

bryanlarsen 2y ago
The price of a commodity is equal to the highest of the lowest cost producers that can satisfy demand. Germany cannot satisfy demand with cheap renewables, so the marginal producer is expensive gas & nuclear. German electricity is expensive because gas is expensive in Germany. Electricity will be expensive in Germany until Germany completely stops using gas shipped in via container ship.
- sharpshadow 2y ago
  You got it right there Germany can’t satisfy demand with renewables and decided to cut itself of from coal and nuclear, brilliant right!? Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Your argument to stop using LNG doesn’t work if you have many parts of industry build with gas infrastructure which can’t be replaced just like that.
  - kitkat_new 2y ago
    > Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Germany was forced already before that, since Russia used the Gas to blackmail Germany
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    Only if Germany could replace all of their expensive natural gas usage with coal & nuclear would coal & nuclear be relevant. They can't, so it isn't.
  - derriz 2y ago
    Germany has been the biggest exporter of electricity in the world for 8 of the last 10 years[0]. It consistently generates more than it consumes. It's been this way since around 2004. German wholesale electricity prices are relatively low by European standards - so far this year about 8th cheapest - about 13% cheaper than of France, for example[1]. This reflects the blended cost of production. Household prices are higher than average - because domestic consumption of electricity is taxed more heavily in Germany than the average in Europe. [0] https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/electrical-energy https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/electrical-energy [1] https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/european-wholesale-electricity-price-data/ https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/european-wholesale-...
    - pyrale 2y ago
      The link you're using is from 2022, which is an outlier in terms of energy production. The issue is that Germany exports "waste" electricity. It almost always exports cheap power, and imports at high rates. In negative price events, you will almost always see Germany in the exporter list. For instance, today, France imported from Germany between 10:30 and 15:45, when market prices reached bottom, and exported to Germany when prices soared, including between 18h and 21h [1]. Another issue is that Germany's inability to control its power production is big enough that it can't be compensated by cross-border trades. That's what can be seen today between 18h and 21h [2], where the price spread between France and Germany became very large. This kind of pattern has been happening all week. [1]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/cross-border-electricity-trading https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/cross-border-electrici... [2]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data
      - derriz 2y ago
        The link provides 2022 imports and exports at the top of the page but if you scroll down includes balances going back to 1995. 2022 is not an outlier in this regard - on an aggregate basis Germany has been the biggest net exporter of electricity in the world over the last 20 years. Nothing "waste" about it, the imports and exports in the link are priced in USD, so if your thesis is true, then it would mean even bigger _volumes_ of electric exports.
  - _ph_ 2y ago
    The long-term plans are of course to get rid of coal and gas, as it will be the case world wide, if humanity wants to have a future. Part of that is, that EU-wide there are increasing costs to producing CO2. Which makes power from coal and gas more expensive. This caused a strong drop in coal energy in germany in 23, as there were cheaper alternatives. This trend is expected to continue. Gas costs saw a spike due to the war Russia started and their attempt at blackmailing Germany and consequently cutting gas delivery to Germany. Gas usage has been reduced and gas prices are roughly back to pre-war levels. But indeed, the LNG part of it is more expensive than the russian gas. On the other side, switching heating to heat pumps will reduce the overal gas consumption drastically. Gas never bore a main load of the grid, it is mostly for supporting short time demands. This role will be important with renewables, but the overall amount of gas energy will drop At the same time, buildup of renewables has been greatly sped up by the current government, the electricity is already generated buy almost 60% renewables.
  - Qwertious 2y ago
    Germany might better satisfy demand with renewables if it stopped shooting itself in the foot by blocking wind turbine locations due to NIMBYism.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

The price of a commodity is equal to the highest of the lowest cost producers that can satisfy demand. Germany cannot satisfy demand with cheap renewables, so the marginal producer is expensive gas & nuclear. German electricity is expensive because gas is expensive in Germany. Electricity will be expensive in Germany until Germany completely stops using gas shipped in via container ship.

sharpshadow 2y ago
You got it right there Germany can’t satisfy demand with renewables and decided to cut itself of from coal and nuclear, brilliant right!? Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Your argument to stop using LNG doesn’t work if you have many parts of industry build with gas infrastructure which can’t be replaced just like that.
- kitkat_new 2y ago
  > Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Germany was forced already before that, since Russia used the Gas to blackmail Germany
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Only if Germany could replace all of their expensive natural gas usage with coal & nuclear would coal & nuclear be relevant. They can't, so it isn't.
- derriz 2y ago
  Germany has been the biggest exporter of electricity in the world for 8 of the last 10 years[0]. It consistently generates more than it consumes. It's been this way since around 2004. German wholesale electricity prices are relatively low by European standards - so far this year about 8th cheapest - about 13% cheaper than of France, for example[1]. This reflects the blended cost of production. Household prices are higher than average - because domestic consumption of electricity is taxed more heavily in Germany than the average in Europe. [0] https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/electrical-energy https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/electrical-energy [1] https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/european-wholesale-electricity-price-data/ https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/european-wholesale-...
  - pyrale 2y ago
    The link you're using is from 2022, which is an outlier in terms of energy production. The issue is that Germany exports "waste" electricity. It almost always exports cheap power, and imports at high rates. In negative price events, you will almost always see Germany in the exporter list. For instance, today, France imported from Germany between 10:30 and 15:45, when market prices reached bottom, and exported to Germany when prices soared, including between 18h and 21h [1]. Another issue is that Germany's inability to control its power production is big enough that it can't be compensated by cross-border trades. That's what can be seen today between 18h and 21h [2], where the price spread between France and Germany became very large. This kind of pattern has been happening all week. [1]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/cross-border-electricity-trading https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/cross-border-electrici... [2]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data
    - derriz 2y ago
      The link provides 2022 imports and exports at the top of the page but if you scroll down includes balances going back to 1995. 2022 is not an outlier in this regard - on an aggregate basis Germany has been the biggest net exporter of electricity in the world over the last 20 years. Nothing "waste" about it, the imports and exports in the link are priced in USD, so if your thesis is true, then it would mean even bigger _volumes_ of electric exports.
- _ph_ 2y ago
  The long-term plans are of course to get rid of coal and gas, as it will be the case world wide, if humanity wants to have a future. Part of that is, that EU-wide there are increasing costs to producing CO2. Which makes power from coal and gas more expensive. This caused a strong drop in coal energy in germany in 23, as there were cheaper alternatives. This trend is expected to continue. Gas costs saw a spike due to the war Russia started and their attempt at blackmailing Germany and consequently cutting gas delivery to Germany. Gas usage has been reduced and gas prices are roughly back to pre-war levels. But indeed, the LNG part of it is more expensive than the russian gas. On the other side, switching heating to heat pumps will reduce the overal gas consumption drastically. Gas never bore a main load of the grid, it is mostly for supporting short time demands. This role will be important with renewables, but the overall amount of gas energy will drop At the same time, buildup of renewables has been greatly sped up by the current government, the electricity is already generated buy almost 60% renewables.
- Qwertious 2y ago
  Germany might better satisfy demand with renewables if it stopped shooting itself in the foot by blocking wind turbine locations due to NIMBYism.