I don't think it's strictly true, and a system built around it as a rule would be easily manipulated and a bad system. I'm not proposing it as a rule within an

I don't think it's strictly true, and a system built around it as a rule would be easily manipulated and a bad system. I'm not proposing it as a rule within any system, though, and my analysis generally holds so long as it's true a meaningful chunk of the time - it doesn't even need to be a majority of cases.