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These charts stop right at the point where the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, and the tarrif schedule is only going up, to 50%. This matters beca

by 7e 2y ago

These charts stop right at the point where the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, and the tarrif schedule is only going up, to 50%. This matters because the future of solar is utility scale, where the panel costs dominate. So for the US, at least, solar costs will not keep shrinking in the short term.

pjc50 2y ago
Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors.
- blululu 2y ago
  Countries that dump solar panels on the international market to kill off foreign competition are really demonstrating that... During the Obama years the US invested heavily in Solar, and developed many of the technical innovations that make cheap solar possible today. Unfortunately the people who did this work were not able to keep up with the CCP subsidizing solar panels well below cost. They folded and the US has very little domestic solar panel manufacturing by comparison. This is unfortunate if you believe in a sustainable economy, especially since a domestic industry might have funded further R&D efforts. The tariffs are maybe too little too late for saving the nascent US solar manufacturing industry, but the issues of trade policy and climate policy are not always straightforward.
  - henry2023 2y ago
    What makes you think that cheap solar panels aren’t the product of economy of scale in a country that just likes to build stuff?
    - blululu 2y ago
      That’s part of it, but America is also a country that routinely achieves economies of scale and loves to build stuff so there is clearly more going on here. Look back at what was commercially and technically available 15 years ago and it is not a viable mainstream energy supply at the scale needed to have the deployment we see today. The US developed a number of key innovations that made this feasible. A lot of this was funded under Obama era energy policy, but no efforts were made to protect the native industry from an unsustainable market force which sadly meant that the policy did not get the ROI that it might have otherwise achieved.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
  - pjc50 2y ago
    > CCP subsidizing solar panels well below cost So we should allow them to subsidize the Western energy transition? And cost the CCP money at the same time? Literally have the Chinese taxpayer pay for cheap Western energy? I see the same dynamic playing out with EVs: "EVs are too expensive we have to subsidize them!" <China produces EVs that are cheaper than Western cars> "EVs are too cheap, we have to tariff them!" This is just handing taxpayer cash to Tesla shareholders with extra steps. > many of the technical innovations that make cheap solar possible today Name some? Because it looks to me like a straightforward learning and scaling curve in Chinese factories. If they were actually infringing US patents they'd be blocked on that basis, which tells me they aren't.
- specialist 2y ago
  Yes but (as you already know): Realpolitick, the political economy, remains important. The sausage factory. Tariffs are the hush money to secure the ongoing support for Bidenomics. It's super important that every player has its own domestic production. Even if USA's (or EU's) total global market share < 5%, it's worthwhile. De-risk supply chains, national security, upkeep of domestic competency, etc. Quid pro quo. China could liberalize their economy too. Allow foreign direct investment. Drop their own tarriffs. But they're not (yet?) willing to forfeit autonomy in exchange for "free trade". -- I get what you're saying. I too agree that fighting climate crisis is our top priority. These slap fights are infuriating. But, for better or worse, you and I aren't in charge.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors Or countries could be heterogenous and care about climate change, energy independence and jobs.
ldbooth 2y ago
Also The post-Covid interest rate hikes. Which is why prices went up from 2021-2023. The author attributes this only to supply chain: developers had PPAs signed in 2019-2021 that assumed lower borrowing & construction costs, then interest rates went up sharply, and all those PPAs had to be either renegotiated or the underlying project was never built.
joeyh 2y ago
Those tariffs have were entirely worked around on the Chinese side before the ink was dry. One easy dodge: Manufacture in eg India for a little bit more, sell those to the US, transport Chinese solar panels for installation in India. I bought a pallet just after the tariffs were announced and the price today is cheaper.
slavik81 2y ago
For comparison, Canadian tariffs on Chinese solar panels are >150%.

by 7e 2y ago

pjc50 2y ago

Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors.

blululu 2y ago
Countries that dump solar panels on the international market to kill off foreign competition are really demonstrating that... During the Obama years the US invested heavily in Solar, and developed many of the technical innovations that make cheap solar possible today. Unfortunately the people who did this work were not able to keep up with the CCP subsidizing solar panels well below cost. They folded and the US has very little domestic solar panel manufacturing by comparison. This is unfortunate if you believe in a sustainable economy, especially since a domestic industry might have funded further R&D efforts. The tariffs are maybe too little too late for saving the nascent US solar manufacturing industry, but the issues of trade policy and climate policy are not always straightforward.
- henry2023 2y ago
  What makes you think that cheap solar panels aren’t the product of economy of scale in a country that just likes to build stuff?
  - blululu 2y ago
    That’s part of it, but America is also a country that routinely achieves economies of scale and loves to build stuff so there is clearly more going on here. Look back at what was commercially and technically available 15 years ago and it is not a viable mainstream energy supply at the scale needed to have the deployment we see today. The US developed a number of key innovations that made this feasible. A lot of this was funded under Obama era energy policy, but no efforts were made to protect the native industry from an unsustainable market force which sadly meant that the policy did not get the ROI that it might have otherwise achieved.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- pjc50 2y ago
  > CCP subsidizing solar panels well below cost So we should allow them to subsidize the Western energy transition? And cost the CCP money at the same time? Literally have the Chinese taxpayer pay for cheap Western energy? I see the same dynamic playing out with EVs: "EVs are too expensive we have to subsidize them!" <China produces EVs that are cheaper than Western cars> "EVs are too cheap, we have to tariff them!" This is just handing taxpayer cash to Tesla shareholders with extra steps. > many of the technical innovations that make cheap solar possible today Name some? Because it looks to me like a straightforward learning and scaling curve in Chinese factories. If they were actually infringing US patents they'd be blocked on that basis, which tells me they aren't.
specialist 2y ago
Yes but (as you already know): Realpolitick, the political economy, remains important. The sausage factory. Tariffs are the hush money to secure the ongoing support for Bidenomics. It's super important that every player has its own domestic production. Even if USA's (or EU's) total global market share < 5%, it's worthwhile. De-risk supply chains, national security, upkeep of domestic competency, etc. Quid pro quo. China could liberalize their economy too. Allow foreign direct investment. Drop their own tarriffs. But they're not (yet?) willing to forfeit autonomy in exchange for "free trade". -- I get what you're saying. I too agree that fighting climate crisis is our top priority. These slap fights are infuriating. But, for better or worse, you and I aren't in charge.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors Or countries could be heterogenous and care about climate change, energy independence and jobs.

ldbooth 2y ago

Also The post-Covid interest rate hikes. Which is why prices went up from 2021-2023. The author attributes this only to supply chain: developers had PPAs signed in 2019-2021 that assumed lower borrowing & construction costs, then interest rates went up sharply, and all those PPAs had to be either renegotiated or the underlying project was never built.

joeyh 2y ago

Those tariffs have were entirely worked around on the Chinese side before the ink was dry. One easy dodge: Manufacture in eg India for a little bit more, sell those to the US, transport Chinese solar panels for installation in India. I bought a pallet just after the tariffs were announced and the price today is cheaper.

slavik81 2y ago

For comparison, Canadian tariffs on Chinese solar panels are >150%.